Nicholas School of the Environment
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Master's projects by Nicholas School of the Environment students, including the Duke Marine Laboratory.
The masters project is done in partial fulfillment of the degree requirements for the professional Master of Environmental Management or the Master of Forestry degree. While the MP may include original laboratory or field research, it may also take the form of management plans, handbooks, educational curricula, or other such products. Each student is advised by a faculty member who reviews and approves the project prior to completion.
A masters projects that is original research should not be as large as a masters thesis although it should be of publishable quality but not necessarily comprehensive enough to stand alone as a publication. A masters projects that does not follow the usual format for scientific research should follow a framework that is considered good practice in an appropriate field.
Duke migrated to an electronic-only system for masters projects between 2006 and 2010. As such, projects completed between 2006 and 2010 may not be part of this system, and those created before 2006 are not hosted here except for a small number that have been digitized.
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Item Open Access 1 Linking Land Use and Water Quality: Guiding Development Surrounding Durham County’s Drinking Watershed(2012-04-26) Levin, Katie RoseAbstract Linking Land Use and Water Quality: Guiding Development Surrounding Durham County’s Drinking Watershed By Katie Rose Levin May 2012 Cities and Counties have an obligation to provide water to their citizens in the quality and quantity necessary to support a viable existence. To meet these demands, in 1929 Durham City dammed the Flat River, creating the reservoir named “Lake Michie” in the far north eastern part of Durham County. Although located in a primarily rural area, there are signs that stormwater runoff is having detrimental effects on Lake Michie. The reservoir has already lost a quarter of its holding capacity to sedimentation, and was recently classified as Eutrophic by the USGS. Development pressure will only increase, as for the last ten years Durham County’s population has grown faster than the average across the state. To address development concerns, Durham county and city created the Unified Development Ordinance (UDO) which provides enhanced protection for the land in the Lake Michie Watershed. The UDO limits the amount of impervious surface allowed on any one parcel in the watershed to 6%, while allowing a transfer of development between parcels to discourage urban sprawl. In addition to the protection afforded by codes, Durham managers are interested in creating a unified conservation scheme, based on preserving parcels as forested areas. This Project provides information and maps that can be used for conservation planning. Through combining topography, soils, and land use, areas likely to have highest impact on water quality are highlighted. Using this information, parcels can be evaluated based on their relative impact on water quality. Likewise, parcels can be compared against each other for the relative impact they have on water quality, informing transfers of impervious surface areas to meet development code. By combining the scientific evaluation of land use effects with the political boundaries of parcel ownership officials can easily translate science into the politics of conservation and development. Just like the New Hope Creek and Eno River conservation maps, now Lake Michie has a scientifically based conservation map to help officials and land managers preserve water quality into the future. Adviser: Dr. Dean UrbanItem Open Access 2018 Land Trust Communication Guide(2018-04-26) Hanway, HayleyCommunications is a critical component of a land trust’s success. Since land trusts are mainly private, non-profit organizations, they are heavily dependent on donors and volunteers. A strong communications strategy will attract new donors and volunteers while retaining old ones. This project for the Land Conservancy of West Michigan (LCWM) evaluates different communications platforms and strategies and provides a list of recommendations for an effective communication’s plan. Research was conducted via a survey disseminated to LCWM members and informational interviews with other environmental organizations. Final recommendations include prioritizing Facebook, Instagram, and Youtube/Vimeo over other forms of social media, investing in an annual (or five-year) professional paper magazine product, strengthening partnerships with local organizations, and holding more events for outreach.Item Open Access A Biomass Fuel Assessment for Duke University’s Chilled Water Plant #2(2010-04-30T15:51:51Z) Crowley, RichardThis Masters Project identifies the University’s biomass fuelshed and locates potential supply sources and probable fuel quantities. An Excel workbook couples user-defined transportation, processing, collection and handling, and purchase premium expenses within fuel classes to establish probable purchase costs for each supply source. Results are optimized for a lowest cost fuel mix to meet modeled plant demand based on user defined plant parameters. Finally, total biomass fuel costs are compared to fossil options to determine if biomass is a financially justifiable fuel for Duke to pursue. The results of this study indicate that the university fuelshed likely contains supply for more than 4 times the steam plants fuel requirements. The cost per million British thermal units combusted within the fuelshed is highly variable, ranging from approximately $1.01 for construction / demolition material to over $29 for forest thinnings. Several fuel classes are more economic than current prices for natural gas, ranging from less than a quarter to three quarters of the price of natural gas. The preliminary assessments of purchasing biomass fuel for use in the plant resulted in costs significantly lower than natural gas, and even potentially lower than coal. It is anticipated that the annual fuel costs for a biomass plant could be met for around $2.25 million based on plant parameters modeled and the estimated biomass characteristics (collection, base cost, etc.). Fuel costs are demonstrated to be highly sensitive to changes in fuel properties (mainly distance and moisture content) and plant operating parameters. A large portion of the biomass estimates are derived using employee based proxy equations, and the author was unable to confirm the accuracy of these supply estimates. Finally, the cost modeled is for fuel supply only. This paper does not take into consideration storage, operating / maintenance, or capital outlay, all of which are traditionally higher for biomass than fossil fuels. Despite these uncertainties there is a clearly demonstrated opportunity to fuel the plant with biomass at a cost less than natural gas. Additionally, the large and diverse biomass supply will lend resiliency to market fluctuations.Item Open Access A Bottom-up Approach to Setting a Greenhouse Gas Reduction Target for Charlotte, North Carolina(2011-04-28) Brewer, Shannon; Martin, Emily; Thompson, LisaIn 2007, Charlotte’s City Council passed a resolution directing City staff to: (1) Inventory City Operations Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions; (2) Establish aggressive and realistic GHG emission reduction targets; (3) Create an action plan; (4) Prepare a cost-benefit analysis; and (5) Adopt a budget to meet the emission reduction targets. The objective of this project is to update the inventory of GHG emissions from City operations and recommend a GHG emissions target, based on research into best practices as well as economic and technical feasibility. Several considerations are important to the City in the selection of a GHG emission reduction target. First, many other cities have set ambitious emission reduction targets that appear unlikely to be met by their respective target dates. Charlotte does not want to set an unattainable target that fails to consider technical and economic feasibility. In addition, the City hopes to set an example for the community by setting an aggressive target and by making consistent and visible progress towards reducing emissions. First, we interviewed a number of peer organizations, including other municipalities, universities and corporations. The purpose of this stage of our project was to investigate how comparable organizations set GHG emissions reduction targets and to document best practices for climate action planning. Our findings suggest that there is no accepted process for choosing a GHG emissions reduction target and many organizations set targets with little or no analysis into the economic or technical feasibility of achieving that target. The remainder of our work focused on identifying potential GHG reduction projects for the City and determining alternate emissions reduction scenarios. We decided on a bottom-up approach (starting with individual business units before creating an organization-wide strategy) to fit with Charlotte’s unique decentralized structure. Potential greenhouse gas reduction projects were identified through collaboration with five of the City’s key business units. These projects were incorporated into different scenarios based on several key factors. Using these scenarios as a basis, we believe that the most likely GHG emissions reduction that the City can achieve under current financial, technical, and political constraints is approximately 1% per year.Item Open Access A bottom-up electricity demand model for the residential sector in Querétaro, Mexico(2016-12-12) Hernandez, Mauricio; Cao, SunzheThere is a growing interest in reducing energy consumption and its associated greenhouse gas emissions from every sector of the economy. The residential sector is a substantial consumer of energy in every country and understanding which factors affect the energy consumption in this sector is crucial for policy makers, investors, utilities, and other stakeholders. This study contributes to a better understanding of these factors through a case study in Queretaro, Mexico. Particularly, this study sheds light on two different methods for collecting detailed information on the end uses of energy in homes, and for assessing the relationship between energy consumption and demographic and socioeconomic indicators. The data used for this study were collected through face-to-face surveys in 32 households and by tracking real-time electricity consumption in a subset of these households. Finally, a bottom-up model was used to estimate the electricity demand of the households surveyed, with the results suggesting a correlation with income, number of lightbulbs, dwelling size, and the number of days the household was occupied. The results of the study motivated the authors to recommend the extension and replication of this study, to assess the role of private transportation in energy consumption, and to improve the use of technology for the collection and analysis of data.Item Open Access A Bottom-Up Model of Residential Electricity Demand in North and South Carolina(2017-04-28) Hollis, JohnResidential electricity is a significant component of total electricity use in the United States, and the residential market is also a key demographic for energy efficiency (EE) and distributed generation growth. Uncertainty in residential load growth is driven by the impact of changes in technology, policy, demographic and life-style changes. Using a bottom-up engineering model, we begin the construction of a tool to facilitate analyzing the effects of these factors. We use data from the EIA’s Residential Electricity Consumption Survey (RECS), in conjunction with EnergyPlus and BEopt, publicly available software from NREL, to construct 22 archetypical residential buildings characterizing North and South Carolina’s housing stock. We then model energy use for these buildings, and extrapolate these results to the larger housing stock. Projections are accurate for a benchmark year using actual weather data. We identify a number of potential improvements to the model and ways in which the uncertainty on future projections of energy use can be bound. Our conclusions follow: - The archetypical model is a reasonable solution for regional scale residential electricity modeling which minimizes computational needs. - The model delivers disaggregated energy demand, and hourly demand, estimates which are useful for future analysis of energy policy cost effectiveness. - Weather data is a driving source of uncertainty, and hence input weather data should be carefully considered. Projections should use varied weather data to bound uncertainty. - Despite being less computationally demanding than other methods, this model would benefit from an automated method of archetype alteration to ease sensitivity analysis. BEopt supports this through python and XML input files.Item Open Access A Business Plan for Blue Carbon Offsets at Duke University(2012-04-26) Fisher, RebeccaMarine ecosystems such as salt marshes, sea grasses and mangroves absorb from the atmosphere and store large amounts of carbon, both in their vegetation and in the soil beneath them. In light of rapid climate change and global warming, it is imperative that we invest in protecting and increasing the carbon and greenhouse gas sinks on our planet. Given the large quantity of carbon in coastal ecosystems relative to their area, these regions and their potential emissions are of great significance. By preserving and revitalizing coastal ecosystems, organizations can utilize this stored carbon to offset their carbon emissions. This is what the Duke Carbon Offsets Initiative is considering in North Carolina. By investing in the protection of the North Carolina shoreline, Duke University has the capacity to generate “blue carbon” Offsets to offset on campus emission. Building on existing scientific data, analysis, and available methodologies, this report presents a Business Plan for a potential blue carbon project in North Carolina and offers the following recommendations for moving this effort forward: 1. The initially proposed avoided erosion project for Ocracoke Island, NC does not appear to a viable source of blue carbon credits. 2. As an alternative, consider a project that involves preserving wetlands from avoided conversion to another land use rather than an avoided erosion project. 3. Do not engage in projects that will set the offset price above $20 per ton of carbon, as these projects are far more expensive than alternative sources of emission reduction. 4. Because blue carbon in a newly developing offset category, utilize the current methodologies for coastal ecosystems until specific guidelines become available. 5. To achieve cost effectiveness, the initial project should involve a partner organization(s). This will decrease the financial resources DCOI will need to provide the project and will utilize the skills of professionals who have years of experience with wetland preservation along the coastline.Item Open Access A Business Plan for Blue Carbon Offsets at Duke University(2012-04-26) Huo, Jian; Fisher, RebeccaMarine ecosystems such as salt marshes, sea grasses and mangroves absorb from the atmosphere and store large amounts of carbon, both in their vegetation and in the soil beneath them. In light of rapid climate change and global warming, it is imperative that we invest in protecting and increasing the carbon and greenhouse gas sinks on our planet. Given the large quantity of carbon in coastal ecosystems relative to their area, these regions and their potential emissions are of great significance. By preserving and revitalizing coastal ecosystems, organizations can utilize this stored carbon to offset their carbon emissions. This is what the Duke Carbon Offsets Initiative is considering in North Carolina. By investing in the protection of the North Carolina shoreline, Duke University has the capacity to generate “blue carbon” Offsets to offset on campus emission. Building on existing scientific data, analysis, and available methodologies, this report presents a Business Plan for a potential blue carbon project in North Carolina and offers the following recommendations for moving this effort forward: 1. The initially proposed avoided erosion project for Ocracoke Island, NC does not appear to a viable source of blue carbon credits. 2. As an alternative, consider a project that involves preserving wetlands from avoided conversion to another land use rather than an avoided erosion project. 3. Do not engage in projects that will set the offset price above $20 per ton of carbon, as these projects are far more expensive than alternative sources of emission reduction. 4. Because blue carbon is a newly developing offset category, utilize the current methodologies for coastal ecosystems until specific guidelines become available. 5. To achieve cost effectiveness, the initial project should involve a partner organization(s). This will decrease the financial resources DCOI will need to provide the project and will utilize the skills of professionals who have years of experience with wetland preservation along the coastline.Item Open Access A Business Plan for Residential Microgrid Software(2020-04-21) Sundeen, LisaHave you ever thought about going solar or getting an electric vehicle? Do you know which utility rate would save you the most money? Does getting a battery make sense for your home? BUILD MY GRID is the first customer-centric platform that helps residential homeowners answer some of these questions. BUILD MY GRID relies on backend algorithms that optimize utility rates and renewable energy technologies to show customers how they can save the most money by going green. Specifically, customers can compare utility rates, examine different technology combinations, and see available grid services. The energy landscape is morphing into a sustainable decentralized system of energy resources. Residential customers will become increasingly empowered to participate in bidirectional energy management. BUILD MY GRID will help individuals engage in the energy transformation while simultaneously providing an important dataset for traditional energy players, such as utilities.Item Open Access A case study analysis of a participatory process in fisheries management(2008-12-05T18:29:57Z) Vasquez, MelissaThe purpose of this study was to evaluate the experiences of participants in a participatory process in environmental management and to examine relative contributions of process features and the achievement of social goals to participants perceptions of their experience. I examined the case of the North Carolina Marine Fisheries Commission Sea Turtle Advisory Committee, an ad-hoc advisory committee composed of scientists, fishermen, and managers convened to develop solutions to reduce sea turtle-fishery interactions in North Carolina inshore waters. I conducted semi-structured interviews with participants about their experience on this committee. I recorded and transcribed audio of the interviews and coded participant responses using NVivo software. Most participants categorized their experience as positive overall, citing the achievement of social goals rather than the production of substantive recommendations. Participants were most satisfied by the level of motivation of their fellow participants, but least satisfied by the lack of responsiveness from the lead agency, the Marine Fisheries Commission. The committee’s achievement of its goals was further hampered by poor facilitation, which resulted in confusion about the goals and scope of the process. Despite significant setbacks, all committee members responded that they would consider participating in a participatory process again in the future.Item Open Access A Case Study of Community Solar’s Impact on the Energy Affordability of Minnesota’s Low to Moderate Income households(2020-04-24) Jung, AnnieCommunity solar gardens have been adopted by many states in the United States of America. They are an innovative way for utility ratepayers to have a direct role in the energy transition and support deployment of solar power onto the grid. However, the renewable energy industry has been criticized for the lack of low-to-moderate income household participation. To examine this further, I analyzed the participation rate of low-to-moderate income households in a sample set of Minnesota community solar subscriber data. This was achieved by translating the threshold for low-to-moderate income households to a housing price value. Furthermore, a model was created to assess the financial impact of various community solar tariffs on all the stakeholders involved. Analysis of data from 306 credit scores and 185 addresses of community solar garden subscribers showed that even with a credit score minimum requirement, almost 31% of subscribers were low-to-moderate income households. The results of the model showed that non-subscribing ratepayers pay at least 5% more in annual utility bills than subscribers, regardless of their income level. I also found that utilities and developers have competing interests when setting community solar tariffs, even after the Value of Solar was implemented. Overall, these findings support the low-to-moderate income ratepayer advocates and arguments for community solar reform.Item Open Access A CASE STUDY OF GRASSROOTS ADVOCACY AND THE SOCIOPOLITICAL PROCESS: AUTHORIZATION OF PROCESSOR QUOTA SHARES IN THE MAGNUSON-STEVENS FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT ACT(2003) Hunt, Stephanie LSpecial interest groups are trying to change language in the Magnuson-Steven Fisheries Conservation and Management Act (MSFCMA) to allow fishery management councils to create and allocate processor quota (PQ). This limited entry tool is a companion to Individual Fishing Quotas (IFQs) which allocate harvesting rights to individual fishermen or vessel owners. Authorizing PQ would allow councils to give seafood companies exclusive buying rights and would require fishermen to sell their catch to the limited number of buyers holding PQ shares. A grassroots advocacy campaign opposing PQ prevented the 107th Congress from including controversial PQ language in MSFCMA reauthorization. Employing the Cape Cod Commercial Hook Fishermen’s Association (CCCHFA) as a case study, I will analyze how strategies of coalition building, constituent mobilization, and media contact were effectively applied in this campaign. Likewise, strategies to activate members of Congress played a prominent role in the effort. The CCCHFA led 225 visits to Congressional offices, trained more than 17 commercial fishermen in advocacy techniques, generated press coverage on both coasts, and produced a hard-hitting advocacy video that was distributed to all 535 members of Congress. To accomplish future goals, the anti-PQ campaign requires a long-term commitment with flexible goals and strategies, which allow the CCCHFA to take advantage of the changing sociopolitical climate. Given its limited resources, the organization must use time efficiently and continue to build upon past victories.Item Open Access A Case Study of GreenToGo in Durham, North Carolina(2019-04-26) DePouw, Heather; Jiao, Yuchen; Marshall, LayneThe goal of the GreenToGo program in Durham, North Carolina is to provide the shared customers of GreenToGo and local Durham restaurants with an environmentally-conscious option for carryout food containers. This report highlights our efforts to identify and address the barriers to implementing GreenToGo reusable to-go containers for both businesses and consumers. We conducted research on consumer behavior and attitudes around green products, interviewed restaurant owners and managers, and surveyed customers to provide insight on opinions and perspectives of the GreenToGo program. Strategy summaries detailed important aspects of the program framework for scaling up the business plan to other community types. The development of program recommendations can be used to support the long-term sustainability of the Durham-based initiative along with its implementation in other locations.Item Open Access A Case Study of the Sustainable Sites Initiative (SITES): Will Municipalities Embrace SITES to Guide Future Development?(2013-04-26) Howley, JesseThe Sustainable Sites Initiative (SITES) is attempting to become the benchmark certification for sustainable landscape development in the United States. Currently in pilot, the SITES 2009 Guidelines and Performance Benchmarks are expected to be revised by November 2013, at which time SITES will begin open enrollment. In 2009, Sarasota County, Florida converted a capped and closed landfill into a public park, Rothenbach Park. This park is home to a long list of sustainable features and is the winner of a 2010 American Academy of Environmental Engineers (AAEE) Excellence in Environmental Engineering Award in Sustainability. Through a case study of Rothenbach Park, this study attempts to determine if SITES adequately measures landscape sustainability and if SITES will be attractive to municipal policy makers as a guide for green development. The case study included a SITES score of Rothenbach Park using the 2009 SITES Guidelines and Performance Benchmarks. Input from six landscape sustainability experts, public records, and information provided by four Sarasota County officials involved with the development of Rothenbach Park were used to prepare the score. While Rothenbach Park scored well (estimated at a two star rating), there were areas for potential improvement, and recommendations are provided for improvement to park and county sustainable landscape practices. Feedback from Sarasota County officials about SITES was generally positive. The consensus was that SITES is an excellent tool for assessing landscape sustainability and would be useful as a tool for guiding development. However, in a time of limited local government resources, it is going to be important for SITES to become an educational support resource for municipalities to embrace its guidelines. Recommendations are provided to further that goal. Finally, communities like Sarasota County can benefit from SITES as a complement to existing sustainable development commitments. Potential policy tools to allow assimilation of SITES and its guiding principles into county land development are discussed.Item Open Access A CASE STUDY ON BUILDING ENERGY EFFICIENCY MEASURES AT W.E. HUNT RECREATION CENTER, TOWN OF HOLLY SPRINGS(2021-12-04) Tan, Hui ChienThe Town of Holly Springs, located in Wake County of North Carolina, is interested in improving energy efficiency in municipal operations and facilities to offset increasing energy consumption and utility costs that are a substantial contributor to the Town’s budget. The purpose of this Master’s Project is twofold: a) to examine energy use in the Town; and b) to explore passive energy efficiency measures, particularly tree shade effect on annual energy consumption, for the most energy-intensive building owned by the Town. Quantifying the energy conservation benefits of trees in the urban environment adds value municipal tree planting efforts. This study utilized the eQuest energy simulation software to evaluate a series of proposed energy efficiency measures (EEM) on consumption and financial savings. The study concluded with recommendations on which EEMs to pursue based on savings generated.Item Open Access A Case Study Review of The Actual and Potential Role That Multinational Corporations Play in Global Mangrove Governance(2022-04-21) Fahrenholz, JacquelineSince 1970, global mangrove loss has peaked and slowed with recent restoration efforts having some success. Though current instruments used have not proven to be sufficient to return global mangrove cover to historical levels. This study aimed to answer to what extent the private sector is contributing to mangrove reforestation over the last 10 years and what the driving factors behind this are. News articles were searched for examples of such initiatives, and their underlying motivations were identified. Across the last 10 years and 1,147 returned articles, only 5 instances were discovered, suggesting that this is a new phenomenon. In each of these cases, the companies were motivated to voluntarily undertake mangrove restoration because of the added benefit of carbon credits. These findings suggest that public private partnerships may provide support for success moving forward as private companies have larger sources of available funding. Inclusive policy will also be a necessary component to join entities together.Item Open Access A Characterization of the Shark Fisheries in Campeche, Mexico(2013-04-09) Ritter, JessicaSince the early 1990s, shark landings in the Mexican state of Campeche have declined drastically, mirroring an overall decrease in shark populations across the Gulf of Mexico. Historically, most research on the Campeche shark fisheries has focused on assessing the health of shark populations, with little emphasis placed on understanding the human dimension of these artisanal fisheries. This study begins to fill that knowledge gap through participant observation and informal interviews with fishery participants. Results clarify the organizational structure and the rules-in-use of the fisheries, as well as the attitudes of fishery participants towards government regulations. The characterization will ultimately inform Environmental Defense Fund’s future work to rebuild shark populations in the region.Item Open Access A Citizen Science Program for the Center for Alaskan Coastal Studies(2008-08-26T14:28:43Z) Jacob, DavidThe purpose of this Masters Project is to implement an intertidal monitoring program that emphasizes Citizen Science for the Center for Alaskan Coastal Studies (CACS). CACS is a small non-profit organization based out of Homer, Alaska. The organization conducts tidepool tours to the public in a section of Kachemak Bay known as China Poot Bay. With the ecological importance of the intertidal zone and the environmental changes that have occurred in Kachemak Bay, it is important to study the abundance of intertidal organisms and how this abundance changes over time. A list of species to be monitored in China Poot Bay was selected based on one or more of the following: 1) how easy they are to identify, 2) their importance to the intertidal community, 3) their sensitivity to disturbances, 4) if they represent a trophic level, and 5) if they are harvested species. A 30 meter transect was set up perpendicular to the beach at China Poot Bay and was divided into three equal sections all measuring 10 meters. The selected species were counted in each of the three sections using 0.5 x 0.5 meter quadrats. Sessile organisms (such as mussels and barnacles) were counted using percentages of the quadrat, while mobile organisms (such as sea stars and crabs) were counted by actual counts. The numbers were then recorded on a data sheet. The testing of the monitoring program occurred from June to August of 2008. While the data was preliminary there were several recommendations made on creating a successful implementation of the program. These included: 1) setting up a transect that encompasses the entire vertical length of the beach, 2) only conducting one quadrat measurements per section of transect, 3) setting up multiple transects to be used in data collection, 4) allowing the Citizen Scientists to explore the tidepools before conducting the formal research, 5) discussing with the Citizen Scientists why the data is being collected and why it is important, and 6) creating a webpage on the CACS website to display the data collected by the volunteers. This program is being established with the hope that it will both provide long-term data that can be used to track changes in the intertidal zone in China Poot Bay and introduce people of all ages to the diverse organisms that live there.Item Open Access A Climate and Operational Vulnerability Assessment of the Water Company in Salamanca, Chile(2017-04-28) Gochicoa, Pedro I.; Eastman, Lucas B.The present master’s project is an analysis of the future vulnerability of the water company (Aguas del Valle) in Salamanca, Chile to potential changes in population, per capita water use, leakage, and climate. Scenario modelling and sensitivity analyses were carried out in Excel and Stella. We find that under a business as usual scenario, the water company will reach maximum production capacity according to its current water rights in the year 2030. In the most pessimistic scenario, the company will reach maximum capacity in year 2025 and need to produce nearly 13 million m3 in 2050, while in the most optimistic scenario, it will not reach maximum capacity before the year 2050, and will only need to produce 510,000 m3 yearly. A detailed sensitivity analysis revealed that population growth was the principal driver of water production for the future of the water company. A Monte Carlo analysis showed that there is a 60% probability that production will be 3.4 million m3 or less in year 2050. We recommend that the company reduce leakage, which has averaged 34% over the past 10 years. We also recommend that the company invest in demand management as well as an increase in storage of the system from the 9 hours of current consumptive volume to at least 24 hours of emergency storage.Item Open Access A Climate Change Vulnerability and Risk Assessment for the City of Atlanta, Georgia(2010-04-28T18:23:36Z) Morsch, AmyThe Southeastern United States will experience several impacts from climate change over the coming decades, including average temperature increases of several degrees, more frequent droughts, and heavier rain and flood events. More intense weather will place stress on Atlanta’s infrastructure, affect planning decisions, and increase demands for already scarce natural and financial resources. The impacts will affect the health of Atlantans and test the strength of the local and regional economy. Understanding the future climate and preparing now will help ensure that the city remains an economically viable, healthy, and enjoyable place to live and work. Twenty-four planning areas in nine sectors that the city can influence were evaluated to determine their vulnerability and risk with regard to climate change. The assessments were designed using guidance from ICLEI’s Adaptation Guidebook and involved dozens of expert interviews, analysis of city reports, and a comprehensive literature review. The results show that air quality, water quality, and energy assurance are the most vulnerable, at-risk planning areas in the City of Atlanta. These areas are crucial to the health of citizens and the economic viability of the city. Increasing their resiliency will require significant coordination with all levels of government and the private sector. Failure to properly prepare these planning areas for climate change could result in substantial costs to the city. Several additional planning areas show significant vulnerability and risk. These include: electricity production and demand, affordable housing, disaster response, heat relief, stormwater management, urban forest management, road and bridge maintenance, and air transport. Analysis of vulnerability and risk by sector resulted in similar findings. The sectors of energy, water, and health will be most impacted by climate change over the coming decades. Improving the resiliency of these sectors may be most effectively achieved through measures that focus on strengthening sectors like ecology, transportation, and land use and development. This study identified recurring barriers that lower the city’s adaptive capacity. Lack of program funding and knowledge of climate change - and the impacts - were pervasive. Short planning horizons and planning efforts based on historical data (or future projections that ignore climate change) are also common and reduce Atlanta’s resiliency. Coordination between several planning areas is strong, but could be increased in others such as heat relief and urban planning. Narrow government mandates, like the flood plain ordinance, can also limit progress towards climate resiliency. In other cases, strict mandates like those stemming from the CSO Consent Decree have been instrumental to project success. The results of this project are intended to inform the next phase of adaptation planning. This involves setting high-level goals for climate resiliency and outlining the adaptation tactics to achieve them. It is recommended that a diverse, knowledgeable committee of local decision makers and stakeholders be tasked with this challenge. A robust adaptation strategy will place Atlanta in the company of other climate proactive cities that have already created comprehensive adaptation plans, like New York City and Chicago.