Nuanced Regional Climate Exposure Assessment for National Parks

Climate-driven changes in water availability are impacting resources in national parks across the nation. Because the water balance provides relevant, actionable, and interpretable information to managers, the National Parks Service supported development and application of a high temporal and spatial resolution water balance model. This historical and predictive model was used in conjunction with a high-resolution vegetation land cover map to graphically determine the actual evapotranspiration (AET) and water deficit levels associated with vegetation types within a given area. The resulting model estimates how water balance parameters are expected to change under future climate scenarios, suggesting increases in both AET and water deficit. Using this method and Yosemite, Sequoia, and Kings Canyon National Parks as case studies, a water balance approach for identifying vegetation types was created and can be subsequently used by National Park managers in the future.