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Browsing by Subject "Forecasting"
Now showing items 1-20 of 31
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A few of our favorite unconfirmed ideas.
(Crit Care, 2015)Medical practice is rooted in our dependence on the best available evidence from incremental scientific experimentation and rigorous clinical trials. Progress toward determining the true worth of ongoing practice or suggested ... -
A neural biomarker of psychological vulnerability to future life stress.
(Neuron, 2015-02-04)We all experience a host of common life stressors such as the death of a family member, medical illness, and financial uncertainty. While most of us are resilient to such stressors, continuing to function normally, for a ... -
Acquisition, Analysis, and Sharing of Data in 2015 and Beyond: A Survey of the Landscape: A Conference Report From the American Heart Association Data Summit 2015.
(J Am Heart Assoc, 2015-11-05)BACKGROUND: A 1.5-day interactive forum was convened to discuss critical issues in the acquisition, analysis, and sharing of data in the field of cardiovascular and stroke science. The discussion will serve as the foundation ... -
Alcohol limits in older people.
(Addiction (Abingdon, England), 2012-09) -
An evaluation of physician predictions of discharge on a general medicine service.
(J Hosp Med, 2015-12)The goal of this study was to evaluate general medicine physicians' ability to predict hospital discharge. We prospectively asked study subjects to predict whether each patient under their care would be discharged on the ... -
Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust To Parameter Instability
(2006-02)Many authors have documented that it is challenging to explain exchange rate fluctuations with macroeconomic fundamentals: a random walk forecasts future exchange rates better than existing macroeconomic models. This paper ... -
Comparing Predictive Accuracy in the Presence of a Loss Function Shape Parameter
(Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2021-01-01)We develop tests for out-of-sample forecast comparisons based on loss functions that contain shape parameters. Examples include comparisons using average utility across a range of values for the level of risk aversion, ... -
Diminishment of respiratory sinus arrhythmia foreshadows doxorubicin-induced cardiomyopathy.
(Circulation, 1991-08)BACKGROUND: The development of a microcomputer-based device permits quick, simple, and noninvasive quantification of the respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) during quiet breathing. METHODS AND RESULTS: We prospectively and ... -
Dynamic modeling and Bayesian predictive synthesis
(2017)This dissertation discusses model and forecast comparison, calibration, and combination from a foundational perspective. For nearly five decades, the field of forecast combination has grown exponentially. Its practicality ... -
Eliciting and Aggregating Forecasts When Information is Shared
(2016)Using the wisdom of crowds---combining many individual forecasts to obtain an aggregate estimate---can be an effective technique for improving forecast accuracy. When individual forecasts are drawn from independent and identical ... -
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.
(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2022-04)Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general ... -
Expert estimates of caregiver hours for older Singaporeans with dementia.
(Australasian journal on ageing, 2012-12)<h4>Aim</h4>To obtain experts' estimates of the number of non-medical care hours required by older Singaporeans at different stages of ageing-related dementia, with low or high behavioural features.<h4>Methods</h4>Experts ... -
Future living arrangements of Singaporeans with age-related dementia.
(International psychogeriatrics, 2012-10)<h4>Background</h4>With rapid aging, Singapore faces an increasing proportion of the population with age-related dementia. We used system dynamics methodology to estimate the number and proportion of people with mild, moderate, ... -
Future requirements for and supply of ophthalmologists for an aging population in Singapore.
(Hum Resour Health, 2015-11-17)BACKGROUND: Singapore's population, as that of many other countries, is aging; this is likely to lead to an increase in eye diseases and the demand for eye care. Since ophthalmologist training is long and expensive, early ... -
Increased labor losses and decreased adaptation potential in a warmer world.
(Nature communications, 2021-12)Working in hot and potentially humid conditions creates health and well-being risks that will increase as the planet warms. It has been proposed that workers could adapt to increasing temperatures by moving labor from midday ... -
Medical cost trajectories and onsets of cancer and noncancer diseases in US elderly population.
(Comput Math Methods Med, 2011)Time trajectories of medical costs-associated with onset of twelve aging-related cancer and chronic noncancer diseases were analyzed using the National Long-Term Care Survey data linked to Medicare Service Use files. A special ... -
"Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange"
(2003)Using a new dataset consisting of six years of real-time exchange rate quotations, macroeconomic expectations, and macroeconomic realizations (announcements), we characterize the conditional means of U.S. dollar spot exchange ... -
New England's Installed Electric Generation Forecast 2013-2025
(2014-04-24)The aim of this Master’s Project, as identified by our client the C Three Group, LLC, was to forecast installed electric capacity in the ISO New England region through the year 2025 under different scenarios including varying ... -
Novel application of approaches to predicting medication adherence using medical claims data.
(Health services research, 2019-12)<h4>Objective</h4>To compare predictive analytic approaches to characterize medication nonadherence and determine under which circumstances each method may be best applied.<h4>Data sources/study setting</h4>Medicare Parts ... -
Oil and gas projects in the Western Amazon: threats to wilderness, biodiversity, and indigenous peoples.
(PLoS One, 2008-08-13)BACKGROUND: The western Amazon is the most biologically rich part of the Amazon basin and is home to a great diversity of indigenous ethnic groups, including some of the world's last uncontacted peoples living in voluntary ...
