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Implications of shale gas development for climate change.

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Date
2014
Authors
Newell, Richard G
Raimi, Daniel
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Abstract
Advances in technologies for extracting oil and gas from shale formations have dramatically increased U.S. production of natural gas. As production expands domestically and abroad, natural gas prices will be lower than without shale gas. Lower prices have two main effects: increasing overall energy consumption, and encouraging substitution away from sources such as coal, nuclear, renewables, and electricity. We examine the evidence and analyze modeling projections to understand how these two dynamics affect greenhouse gas emissions. Most evidence indicates that natural gas as a substitute for coal in electricity production, gasoline in transport, and electricity in buildings decreases greenhouse gases, although as an electricity substitute this depends on the electricity mix displaced. Modeling suggests that absent substantial policy changes, increased natural gas production slightly increases overall energy use, more substantially encourages fuel-switching, and that the combined effect slightly alters economy wide GHG emissions; whether the net effect is a slight decrease or increase depends on modeling assumptions including upstream methane emissions. Our main conclusions are that natural gas can help reduce GHG emissions, but in the absence of targeted climate policy measures, it will not substantially change the course of global GHG concentrations. Abundant natural gas can, however, help reduce the costs of achieving GHG reduction goals.
Type
Journal article
Subject
Air Pollutants
Air Pollution
Climate Change
Extraction and Processing Industry
Methane
Natural Gas
United States
Permalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/10263
Published Version (Please cite this version)
10.1021/es4046154
Publication Info
Newell, Richard G; & Raimi, Daniel (2014). Implications of shale gas development for climate change. Environ Sci Technol, 48(15). pp. 8360-8368. 10.1021/es4046154. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/10263.
This is constructed from limited available data and may be imprecise. To cite this article, please review & use the official citation provided by the journal.
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Scholars@Duke

Newell

Richard G. Newell

Adjunct Professor
Dr. Richard G. Newell is the President and CEO of Resources for the Future (RFF), an independent, nonprofit research institution that improves environmental, energy, and natural resource decisions through impartial economic research and policy engagement. From 2009 to 2011, he served as the administrator of the US Energy Information Administration, the agency responsible for official US government energy statistics and analysis. Dr. Newell is an adjunct professor at Duke University, where he
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