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Implications of shale gas development for climate change.
Abstract
Advances in technologies for extracting oil and gas from shale formations have dramatically
increased U.S. production of natural gas. As production expands domestically and abroad,
natural gas prices will be lower than without shale gas. Lower prices have two main
effects: increasing overall energy consumption, and encouraging substitution away
from sources such as coal, nuclear, renewables, and electricity. We examine the evidence
and analyze modeling projections to understand how these two dynamics affect greenhouse
gas emissions. Most evidence indicates that natural gas as a substitute for coal in
electricity production, gasoline in transport, and electricity in buildings decreases
greenhouse gases, although as an electricity substitute this depends on the electricity
mix displaced. Modeling suggests that absent substantial policy changes, increased
natural gas production slightly increases overall energy use, more substantially encourages
fuel-switching, and that the combined effect slightly alters economy wide GHG emissions;
whether the net effect is a slight decrease or increase depends on modeling assumptions
including upstream methane emissions. Our main conclusions are that natural gas can
help reduce GHG emissions, but in the absence of targeted climate policy measures,
it will not substantially change the course of global GHG concentrations. Abundant
natural gas can, however, help reduce the costs of achieving GHG reduction goals.
Type
Journal articleSubject
Air PollutantsAir Pollution
Climate Change
Extraction and Processing Industry
Methane
Natural Gas
United States
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https://hdl.handle.net/10161/10263Published Version (Please cite this version)
10.1021/es4046154Publication Info
Newell, Richard G; & Raimi, Daniel (2014). Implications of shale gas development for climate change. Environ Sci Technol, 48(15). pp. 8360-8368. 10.1021/es4046154. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/10263.This is constructed from limited available data and may be imprecise. To cite this
article, please review & use the official citation provided by the journal.
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Show full item recordScholars@Duke
Richard G. Newell
Adjunct Professor
Dr. Richard G. Newell is the President and CEO of Resources for the Future (RFF),
an independent, nonprofit research institution that improves environmental, energy,
and natural resource decisions through impartial economic research and policy engagement.
From 2009 to 2011, he served as the administrator of the US Energy Information Administration,
the agency responsible for official US government energy statistics and analysis.
Dr. Newell is an adjunct professor at Duke University, where he

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