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Future requirements for and supply of ophthalmologists for an aging population in Singapore.

dc.contributor.author Ansah, JP
dc.contributor.author Bayer, S
dc.contributor.author De Korne, D
dc.contributor.author Jayabaskar, T
dc.contributor.author Koh, V
dc.contributor.author Lamoureux, E
dc.contributor.author Lew, N
dc.contributor.author Matchar, David Bruce
dc.contributor.author Pan, Chong
dc.contributor.author Phua, A
dc.contributor.author Quek, D
dc.coverage.spatial England
dc.date.accessioned 2016-03-02T04:00:12Z
dc.date.issued 2015-11-17
dc.identifier http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26578002
dc.identifier 10.1186/s12960-015-0085-4
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/10161/11683
dc.description.abstract BACKGROUND: Singapore's population, as that of many other countries, is aging; this is likely to lead to an increase in eye diseases and the demand for eye care. Since ophthalmologist training is long and expensive, early planning is essential. This paper forecasts workforce and training requirements for Singapore up to the year 2040 under several plausible future scenarios. METHODS: The Singapore Eye Care Workforce Model was created as a continuous time compartment model with explicit workforce stocks using system dynamics. The model has three modules: prevalence of eye disease, demand, and workforce requirements. The model is used to simulate the prevalence of eye diseases, patient visits, and workforce requirements for the public sector under different scenarios in order to determine training requirements. RESULTS: Four scenarios were constructed. Under the baseline business-as-usual scenario, the required number of ophthalmologists is projected to increase by 117% from 2015 to 2040. Under the current policy scenario (assuming an increase of service uptake due to increased awareness, availability, and accessibility of eye care services), the increase will be 175%, while under the new model of care scenario (considering the additional effect of providing some services by non-ophthalmologists) the increase will only be 150%. The moderated workload scenario (assuming in addition a reduction of the clinical workload) projects an increase in the required number of ophthalmologists of 192% by 2040. Considering the uncertainties in the projected demand for eye care services, under the business-as-usual scenario, a residency intake of 8-22 residents per year is required, 17-21 under the current policy scenario, 14-18 under the new model of care scenario, and, under the moderated workload scenario, an intake of 18-23 residents per year is required. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that under all scenarios considered, Singapore's aging and growing population will result in an almost doubling of the number of Singaporeans with eye conditions, a significant increase in public sector eye care demand and, consequently, a greater requirement for ophthalmologists.
dc.language eng
dc.relation.ispartof Hum Resour Health
dc.relation.isversionof 10.1186/s12960-015-0085-4
dc.subject Aged
dc.subject Aging
dc.subject Eye Diseases
dc.subject Forecasting
dc.subject Health Manpower
dc.subject Health Policy
dc.subject Health Services Needs and Demand
dc.subject Health Services for the Aged
dc.subject Humans
dc.subject Internship and Residency
dc.subject Models, Theoretical
dc.subject Ophthalmology
dc.subject Physicians
dc.subject Population Growth
dc.subject Prevalence
dc.subject Public Sector
dc.subject Singapore
dc.subject Work
dc.subject Workload
dc.title Future requirements for and supply of ophthalmologists for an aging population in Singapore.
dc.type Journal article
pubs.author-url http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26578002
pubs.begin-page 86
pubs.organisational-group Clinical Science Departments
pubs.organisational-group Duke
pubs.organisational-group Duke Clinical Research Institute
pubs.organisational-group Global Health Institute
pubs.organisational-group Institutes and Centers
pubs.organisational-group Institutes and Provost's Academic Units
pubs.organisational-group Medicine
pubs.organisational-group Medicine, General Internal Medicine
pubs.organisational-group Pathology
pubs.organisational-group School of Medicine
pubs.organisational-group University Institutes and Centers
pubs.publication-status Published online
pubs.volume 13
dc.identifier.eissn 1478-4491


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