Community-wide job loss and teenage fertility: evidence from North Carolina.
Abstract
Using North Carolina data for the period 1990-2010, we estimate the effects of economic
downturns on the birthrates of 15- to 19-year-olds, using county-level business closings
and layoffs as a plausibly exogenous source of variation in the strength of the local
economy. We find little effect of job losses on the white teen birthrate. For black
teens, however, job losses to 1 % of the working-age population decrease the birthrate
by around 2 %. Birth declines start five months after the job loss and then last for
more than one year. Linking the timing of job losses and conceptions suggests that
black teen births decline because of increased terminations and perhaps also because
of changes in prepregnancy behaviors. National data on risk behaviors also provide
evidence that black teens reduce sexual activity and increase contraception use in
response to job losses. Job losses seven to nine months after conception do not affect
teen birthrates, indicating that teens do not anticipate job losses and lending confidence
that job losses are "shocks" that can be viewed as quasi-experimental variation. We
also find evidence that relatively advantaged black teens disproportionately abort
after job losses, implying that the average child born to a black teen in the wake
of job loss is relatively more disadvantaged.
Type
Journal articleSubject
Abortion, InducedAdolescent
Adolescent Behavior
African Americans
Birth Rate
Economic Recession
European Continental Ancestry Group
Female
Humans
North Carolina
Sexual Behavior
Unemployment
Young Adult
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https://hdl.handle.net/10161/12435Published Version (Please cite this version)
10.1007/s13524-013-0231-3Publication Info
Ananat, Elizabeth Oltmans; Gassman-Pines, Anna; & Gibson-Davis, Christina (2013). Community-wide job loss and teenage fertility: evidence from North Carolina. Demography, 50(6). pp. 2151-2171. 10.1007/s13524-013-0231-3. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/12435.This is constructed from limited available data and may be imprecise. To cite this
article, please review & use the official citation provided by the journal.
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Elizabeth Oltmans Ananat
Associate Professor in the Sanford School of Public Policy
Elizabeth Oltmans Ananat is Associate Professor of Public Policy Studies and Economics
at Duke University. She received a B.A. in political economy and mathematics at Williams
College in 1999, a master's degree in public policy from the Ford School at the University
of Michigan in 2001, and a Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology in 2006. In 2010 she served as Senior Economist for Labor, Education, and
Welfare at the White House Council of Economic Advisers. Her resea
Anna Gassman-Pines
Professor in the Sanford School of Public Policy
Anna Gassman-Pines is a professor of public policy and psychology and neuroscience
at Duke University. She is also a Faculty Affiliate of Duke’s Center for Child and
Family Policy. Gassman-Pines received her BA with distinction in Psychology from Yale
University and PhD in Community and Developmental Psychology from New York University.
Her research focuses on low-wage work, family life and the effects of welfare and
employment policy on child and maternal well-being in low-income families
Christina M. Gibson-Davis
Professor in the Sanford School of Public Policy
Christina M. Gibson-Davis is a professor in the Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke
University, with a secondary appointment in sociology. Her research interests center
around social and economic differences in family formation patterns. Her current research
focuses on the how divergent patterns of family formation affect economic inequality.
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