Skip to main content
Duke University Libraries
DukeSpace Scholarship by Duke Authors
  • Login
  • Ask
  • Menu
  • Login
  • Ask a Librarian
  • Search & Find
  • Using the Library
  • Research Support
  • Course Support
  • Libraries
  • About
View Item 
  •   DukeSpace
  • Duke Scholarly Works
  • Scholarly Articles
  • View Item
  •   DukeSpace
  • Duke Scholarly Works
  • Scholarly Articles
  • View Item
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

Estimating the Impacts of Local Policy Innovation: The Synthetic Control Method Applied to Tropical Deforestation.

Thumbnail
View / Download
1.6 Mb
Date
2015
Authors
Sills, Erin O
Herrera, Diego
Kirkpatrick, A Justin
Brandão, Amintas
Dickson, Rebecca
Hall, Simon
Pattanayak, Subhrendu
Shoch, David
Vedoveto, Mariana
Young, Luisa
Pfaff, Alexander
Show More
(11 total)
Repository Usage Stats
340
views
189
downloads
Abstract
Quasi-experimental methods increasingly are used to evaluate the impacts of conservation interventions by generating credible estimates of counterfactual baselines. These methods generally require large samples for statistical comparisons, presenting a challenge for evaluating innovative policies implemented within a few pioneering jurisdictions. Single jurisdictions often are studied using comparative methods, which rely on analysts' selection of best case comparisons. The synthetic control method (SCM) offers one systematic and transparent way to select cases for comparison, from a sizeable pool, by focusing upon similarity in outcomes before the intervention. We explain SCM, then apply it to one local initiative to limit deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The municipality of Paragominas launched a multi-pronged local initiative in 2008 to maintain low deforestation while restoring economic production. This was a response to having been placed, due to high deforestation, on a federal "blacklist" that increased enforcement of forest regulations and restricted access to credit and output markets. The local initiative included mapping and monitoring of rural land plus promotion of economic alternatives compatible with low deforestation. The key motivation for the program may have been to reduce the costs of blacklisting. However its stated purpose was to limit deforestation, and thus we apply SCM to estimate what deforestation would have been in a (counterfactual) scenario of no local initiative. We obtain a plausible estimate, in that deforestation patterns before the intervention were similar in Paragominas and the synthetic control, which suggests that after several years, the initiative did lower deforestation (significantly below the synthetic control in 2012). This demonstrates that SCM can yield helpful land-use counterfactuals for single units, with opportunities to integrate local and expert knowledge and to test innovations and permutations on policies that are implemented in just a few locations.
Type
Journal article
Subject
Brazil
Climate Change
Conservation of Natural Resources
Ecosystem
Forests
Models, Statistical
Public Policy
Trees
Tropical Climate
Permalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/12709
Published Version (Please cite this version)
10.1371/journal.pone.0132590
Publication Info
Sills, Erin O; Herrera, Diego; Kirkpatrick, A Justin; Brandão, Amintas; Dickson, Rebecca; Hall, Simon; ... Pfaff, Alexander (2015). Estimating the Impacts of Local Policy Innovation: The Synthetic Control Method Applied to Tropical Deforestation. PLoS One, 10(7). pp. e0132590. 10.1371/journal.pone.0132590. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/12709.
This is constructed from limited available data and may be imprecise. To cite this article, please review & use the official citation provided by the journal.
Collections
  • Scholarly Articles
More Info
Show full item record

Scholars@Duke

Kirkpatrick

Justin Kirkpatrick

Teaching Assistant
Job Candidate page hereCV available hereGoogle Scholar page hereJustin is a PhD student at Duke University in the UPEP Environmental Economics program, a PhD Fellow at the Duke University Energy Initiative, and an NBER Pre-Doctoral Fellow in Energy Economics. J
Pattanayak

Subhrendu K. Pattanayak

Oak Foundation Distinguished Professor of Environmental and Energy Policy
Pfaff

Alexander Pfaff

Professor in the Sanford School of Public Policy
Alex Pfaff is a Professor of Public Policy, Economics and Environment at Duke University. He studies how economic development affects and is affected by natural resources and the environment. His focus is on the impacts of conservation policies (such as protected areas, ecoservices payments, and certifications) and development policies (such as roads and rights). Those impacts are functions of choices by individuals and communities that affect land use, water quantity and quality, human exposure
Alphabetical list of authors with Scholars@Duke profiles.
Open Access

Articles written by Duke faculty are made available through the campus open access policy. For more information see: Duke Open Access Policy

Rights for Collection: Scholarly Articles


Works are deposited here by their authors, and represent their research and opinions, not that of Duke University. Some materials and descriptions may include offensive content. More info

Make Your Work Available Here

How to Deposit

Browse

All of DukeSpaceCommunities & CollectionsAuthorsTitlesTypesBy Issue DateDepartmentsAffiliations of Duke Author(s)SubjectsBy Submit DateThis CollectionAuthorsTitlesTypesBy Issue DateDepartmentsAffiliations of Duke Author(s)SubjectsBy Submit Date

My Account

LoginRegister

Statistics

View Usage Statistics
Duke University Libraries

Contact Us

411 Chapel Drive
Durham, NC 27708
(919) 660-5870
Perkins Library Service Desk

Digital Repositories at Duke

  • Report a problem with the repositories
  • About digital repositories at Duke
  • Accessibility Policy
  • Deaccession and DMCA Takedown Policy

TwitterFacebookYouTubeFlickrInstagramBlogs

Sign Up for Our Newsletter
  • Re-use & Attribution / Privacy
  • Harmful Language Statement
  • Support the Libraries
Duke University