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Estimating the Impacts of Local Policy Innovation: The Synthetic Control Method Applied to Tropical Deforestation.
Abstract
Quasi-experimental methods increasingly are used to evaluate the impacts of conservation
interventions by generating credible estimates of counterfactual baselines. These
methods generally require large samples for statistical comparisons, presenting a
challenge for evaluating innovative policies implemented within a few pioneering jurisdictions.
Single jurisdictions often are studied using comparative methods, which rely on analysts'
selection of best case comparisons. The synthetic control method (SCM) offers one
systematic and transparent way to select cases for comparison, from a sizeable pool,
by focusing upon similarity in outcomes before the intervention. We explain SCM, then
apply it to one local initiative to limit deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The
municipality of Paragominas launched a multi-pronged local initiative in 2008 to maintain
low deforestation while restoring economic production. This was a response to having
been placed, due to high deforestation, on a federal "blacklist" that increased enforcement
of forest regulations and restricted access to credit and output markets. The local
initiative included mapping and monitoring of rural land plus promotion of economic
alternatives compatible with low deforestation. The key motivation for the program
may have been to reduce the costs of blacklisting. However its stated purpose was
to limit deforestation, and thus we apply SCM to estimate what deforestation would
have been in a (counterfactual) scenario of no local initiative. We obtain a plausible
estimate, in that deforestation patterns before the intervention were similar in Paragominas
and the synthetic control, which suggests that after several years, the initiative
did lower deforestation (significantly below the synthetic control in 2012). This
demonstrates that SCM can yield helpful land-use counterfactuals for single units,
with opportunities to integrate local and expert knowledge and to test innovations
and permutations on policies that are implemented in just a few locations.
Type
Journal articleSubject
BrazilClimate Change
Conservation of Natural Resources
Ecosystem
Forests
Models, Statistical
Public Policy
Trees
Tropical Climate
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https://hdl.handle.net/10161/12709Published Version (Please cite this version)
10.1371/journal.pone.0132590Publication Info
Sills, Erin O; Herrera, Diego; Kirkpatrick, A Justin; Brandão, Amintas; Dickson, Rebecca;
Hall, Simon; ... Pfaff, Alexander (2015). Estimating the Impacts of Local Policy Innovation: The Synthetic Control Method Applied
to Tropical Deforestation. PLoS One, 10(7). pp. e0132590. 10.1371/journal.pone.0132590. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/12709.This is constructed from limited available data and may be imprecise. To cite this
article, please review & use the official citation provided by the journal.
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Show full item recordScholars@Duke
Justin Kirkpatrick
Teaching Assistant
Job Candidate page hereCV available hereGoogle Scholar page hereJustin is a PhD student
at Duke University in the UPEP Environmental Economics program, a PhD Fellow at the
Duke University Energy Initiative, and an NBER Pre-Doctoral Fellow in Energy Economics.
J
Subhrendu K. Pattanayak
Oak Foundation Distinguished Professor of Environmental and Energy Policy
Subhrendu K. Pattanayak is the Oak Professor of Environmental and Energy Policy at
Duke University. He studies the causes and consequences of human behaviors related
to the natural environment to help design and evaluate policy interventions in low-income
tropical countries. His research is in three domains at the intersection of environment,
development, health and energy: forest ecosystem services, environmental health (diarrhea,
malaria, respiratory infections) and household energy transition
Alexander Pfaff
Professor in the Sanford School of Public Policy
Alex Pfaff is a Professor of Public Policy, Economics and Environment at Duke University.
He studies how economic development affects and is affected by natural resources and
the environment. His focus is on the impacts of conservation policies (such as protected
areas, ecoservices payments, and certifications) and development policies (such as
roads and rights). Those impacts are functions of choices by individuals and communities
that affect land use, water quantity and quality, human exposure
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