The Role of Hypothesis Testing in the Molding of Econometric Models
Abstract
The paper is a keynote lecture from the Tilburg-Madrid Conference on Hypothesis Tests:
Foundations and Applications at the Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia
(UNED) Madrid, Spain, 15-16 December 2011. It addresses the role of tests of statistical
hypotheses (specification tests) in selection of a statistically admissible model
in which to evaluate economic hypotheses. The issue is formulated in the context of
recent philosophical accounts on the nature of models and related to some results
in the literature on specification search.
Type
Journal articleSubject
statistical testinghypothesis tests
models
general-to-specific specification search
optional stopping
severe tests
costs of search
costs of inference
extreme-bounds analysis
LSE econometric methodology
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Show full item recordScholars@Duke
Kevin Douglas Hoover
Professor of Economics
Professor Hoover's research interests include macroeconomics, monetary economics,
the history of economics, and the philosophy and methodology of empirical economics.
His recent work in economics has focused on the application of causal search methodologies
for structural vector autoregression, the history of microfoundational programs in
macroeconomics, and Roy Harrod's early work on dynamic macroeconomics. In philosophy,
he has concentrated on issues related to causality, especially in economi
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