Managing Crises with Vague Information...Just a Suggestion
Abstract
When disaster occurs, an authority explains the severity and gives citizens the choice
to
leave or stay. People complain they are not told enough regarding specifics that affect
their safety. I propose a model explaining why an authority is vague due to its understanding
of the citizens pessimism. While an authority may decide the disasters severity
merits evacuation, a citizens definition of high risk may be different. To maximize
its
expected payoff, the government speaks vaguely to play off the citizens emotions and
realign incentives. As the governments payoffs change in magnitude, its inclination
to
induce certain citizen action changes.
Type
Honors thesisDepartment
MathematicsPermalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/1421Citation
Trombold, Nicholas Davidson (2009). Managing Crises with Vague Information...Just a Suggestion. Honors thesis, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/1421.Collections
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