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Rise, stagnation, and rise of Danish women's life expectancy.

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Date
2016-04-12
Authors
Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune
Rau, Roland
Jeune, Bernard
Canudas-Romo, Vladimir
Lenart, Adam
Christensen, Kaare
Vaupel, James W
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Abstract
Health conditions change from year to year, with a general tendency in many countries for improvement. These conditions also change from one birth cohort to another: some generations suffer more adverse events in childhood, smoke more heavily, eat poorer diets, etc., than generations born earlier or later. Because it is difficult to disentangle period effects from cohort effects, demographers, epidemiologists, actuaries, and other population scientists often disagree about cohort effects' relative importance. In particular, some advocate forecasts of life expectancy based on period trends; others favor forecasts that hinge on cohort differences. We use a combination of age decomposition and exchange of survival probabilities between countries to study the remarkable recent history of female life expectancy in Denmark, a saga of rising, stagnating, and now again rising lifespans. The gap between female life expectancy in Denmark vs. Sweden grew to 3.5 y in the period 1975-2000. When we assumed that Danish women born 1915-1945 had the same survival probabilities as Swedish women, the gap remained small and roughly constant. Hence, the lower Danish life expectancy is caused by these cohorts and is not attributable to period effects.
Type
Journal article
Subject
cohort effects
decomposition
interwar Danish women
life expectancy
period effects
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Cause of Death
Denmark
Female
Humans
Life Expectancy
Longevity
Population Dynamics
Sweden
Permalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/14648
Published Version (Please cite this version)
10.1073/pnas.1602783113
Publication Info
Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune; Rau, Roland; Jeune, Bernard; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Lenart, Adam; Christensen, Kaare; & Vaupel, James W (2016). Rise, stagnation, and rise of Danish women's life expectancy. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 113(15). pp. 4015-4020. 10.1073/pnas.1602783113. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/14648.
This is constructed from limited available data and may be imprecise. To cite this article, please review & use the official citation provided by the journal.
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Scholars@Duke

Vaupel

James Walton Vaupel

Research Professor Emeritus in the Sanford School of Public Policy
This author no longer has a Scholars@Duke profile, so the information shown here reflects their Duke status at the time this item was deposited.
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