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Age patterns of incidence of geriatric disease in the U.S. elderly population: Medicare-based analysis.

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Date
2012-02
Authors
Akushevich, Igor
Kravchenko, Julia
Ukraintseva, Svetlana
Arbeev, Konstantin
Yashin, Anatoliy I
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To use the Medicare Files of Service Use (MFSU) to evaluate patterns in the incidence of aging-related diseases in the U.S. elderly population. DESIGN: Age-specific incidence rates of 19 aging-related diseases were evaluated using the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS) and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Registry data, both linked to MFSU (NLTCS-M and SEER-M, respectively), using an algorithm developed for individual date at onset evaluation. SETTING: A random sample from the entire U.S. elderly population (Medicare beneficiaries) was used in NLTCS, and the SEER Registry data covers 26% of the U.S. population. PARTICIPANTS: Thirty-four thousand seventy-seven individuals from NLTCS-M and 2,154,598 from SEER-M. MEASUREMENTS: Individual medical histories were reconstructed using information on diagnoses coded in MFSU, dates of medical services and procedures, and Medicare enrollment and disenrollment. RESULTS: The majority of diseases (e.g., prostate cancer, asthma, and diabetes mellitus) had a monotonic decline (or decline after a short period of increase) in incidence with age. A monotonic increase in incidence with age with a subsequent leveling off and decline was observed for myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, ulcer, and Alzheimer's disease. An inverted U-shaped age pattern was detected for lung and colon carcinomas, Parkinson's disease, and renal failure. The results obtained from the NLTCS-M and SEER-M were in agreement (excluding an excess for circulatory diseases in the NLTCS-M). A sensitivity analysis proved the stability of the incidence rates evaluated. CONCLUSION: The developed computational approaches applied to the nationally representative Medicare-based data sets allow reconstruction of age patterns of disease incidence in the U.S. elderly population at the national level with unprecedented statistical accuracy and stability with respect to systematic biases.
Type
Journal article
Subject
Age Distribution
Age Factors
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Female
Geriatrics
Humans
Incidence
Male
Medicare
United States
Permalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/14851
Published Version (Please cite this version)
10.1111/j.1532-5415.2011.03786.x
Publication Info
Akushevich, Igor; Kravchenko, Julia; Ukraintseva, Svetlana; Arbeev, Konstantin; & Yashin, Anatoliy I (2012). Age patterns of incidence of geriatric disease in the U.S. elderly population: Medicare-based analysis. J Am Geriatr Soc, 60(2). pp. 323-327. 10.1111/j.1532-5415.2011.03786.x. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/14851.
This is constructed from limited available data and may be imprecise. To cite this article, please review & use the official citation provided by the journal.
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Scholars@Duke

Igor Akushevich

Research Professor in the Social Science Research Institute
Arbeev

Konstantin Arbeev

Associate Research Professor in the Social Science Research Institute
Konstantin G. Arbeev received the M.S. degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow State University (branch in Ulyanovsk, Russia) in 1995 and the Ph.D. degree in Mathematics and Physics (specialization in Theoretical Foundations of Mathematical Modeling, Numerical Methods and Programming) from Ulyanovsk State University (Russia) in 1999. He was a post-doctoral fellow in Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock (Germany) before moving to Duke University in 2004 to work as a Resea
Ukraintseva

Svetlana Ukraintseva

Associate Research Professor in the Social Science Research Institute
Dr. Ukraintseva studies causes of human aging and related decline in resilience, to identify genetic and other factors responsible for the increase in mortality risk with age eventually limiting longevity. She explores complex relationships, including trade-offs, between physiological aging-changes and risks of major diseases (with emphasis on Alzheimer’s and cancer), as well as survival, to find new genetic and other targets for anti-aging interventions and disease prevention. S
Yashin

Anatoli I. Yashin

Research Professor in the Social Science Research Institute
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