Can behavioral decision theory explain risk-averse fire management decisions?
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Organizations managing forest land often make fire management decisions that seem overly risk-averse in relation to their stated goals for ecosystem restoration, protection of sensitive species and habitats, and protection of water and timber resources. Research in behavioral decision theory has shown that people faced with difficult decisions under uncertainty and decisions with multiple and conflicting objectives adopt mental shortcuts that systematically bias decision-making. Fire management decisions exhibit exactly the characteristics that are likely to trigger such mental shortcuts. Cumulative and unwitting use of mental shortcuts can lead to fire management decisions that are excessively risk-averse, to the point of jeopardizing stated management goals. It can also cause retrospective analyses of fire decisions to focus inappropriately on placing blame for bad outcomes and fail to scrutinize the quality of the decision itself. Excessive risk aversion is evident in the behavior of individual land managers, land management organizations, regulatory agencies that review land management decisions, and the general public and its agents in the media, courts and legislature. Remedies to excessive risk aversion include: (1) wider use of structured decision processes designed to counteract the mental shortcuts that plague human decision-making, (2) structural and educational changes within and between organizations to change perverse incentives that reward risk aversion and discourage adaptive management, and (3) locally focused collaborations among land management agencies, regulatory agencies, and citizens to build trust and to enhance understanding of forest management goals and practices. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Published Version (Please cite this version)10.1016/j.foreco.2005.01.027
Publication InfoMaguire, LA; & Albright, EA (2005). Can behavioral decision theory explain risk-averse fire management decisions?. Forest Ecology and Management, 211(1-2). pp. 47-58. 10.1016/j.foreco.2005.01.027. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/15187.
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Assistant Professor of the Practice in the Division of Environmental Sciences and Policy
Elizabeth's current research centers on how policies and decisions are made in response to extreme climatic events. Further, she is interested in collaborative decision making processes, particularly in the realm of water resource management. She has received a grant from the National Science Foundation and a Fulbright Scholarship to support her scholarship. The Midwest Political Science Associated recently awarded Elizabeth the 'Best Paper by an Emerging Scholar' award at their national confere
Professor of the Practice Emeritus
Dr. Maguire's current research uses a combination of methods from decision analysis, environmental conflict resolution and social psychology to study environmental decision making. She focuses on collaborative decision processes where values important to the general public and stakeholders must be combined with technical analysis to determine management strategies. Her recent applications of decision analysis include the management of rare species, invasive species, and wildfire risk. Dr. Maguir
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