Childhood forecasting of a small segment of the population with large economic burden.
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Policy-makers are interested in early-years interventions to ameliorate childhood risks. They hope for improved adult outcomes in the long run, bringing return on investment. How much return can be expected depends, partly, on how strongly childhood risks forecast adult outcomes. But there is disagreement about whether childhood determines adulthood. We integrated multiple nationwide administrative databases and electronic medical records with the four-decade Dunedin birth-cohort study to test child-to-adult prediction in a different way, by using a population-segmentation approach. A segment comprising one-fifth of the cohort accounted for 36% of the cohort's injury insurance-claims; 40% of excess obese-kilograms; 54% of cigarettes smoked; 57% of hospital nights; 66% of welfare benefits; 77% of fatherless childrearing; 78% of prescription fills; and 81% of criminal convictions. Childhood risks, including poor age-three brain health, predicted this segment with large effect sizes. Early-years interventions effective with this population segment could yield very large returns on investment.
Published Version (Please cite this version)10.1038/s41562-016-0005
Publication InfoBelsky, Daniel W; Caspi, Avshalom; Harrington, Hona Lee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate M; Moffitt, Terrie E; ... Ramrakha, S (2016). Childhood forecasting of a small segment of the population with large economic burden. Nat Hum Behav, 1. 10.1038/s41562-016-0005. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/15571.
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Assistant Professor in Population Health Sciences
The goal of Dan’s work is to reduce social inequalities in aging outcomes in the US and elsewhere. Dan's research seeks to understand how genes and environments combine to shape health across the life course. His work uses tools from genome science and longitudinal data from population-based cohort studies. The aim is to identify targets for policy and clinical interventions to promote positive development in early life and extend healthspan.Areas of interest: Aging, health
Edward M. Arnett Professor of Psychology and Neuroscience
Nannerl O. Keohane University Professor
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