Chinese residential electricity consumption: Estimation and forecast using micro-data
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© 2017 Elsevier B.V. Based on econometric estimation using data from the Chinese Urban Household Survey, we develop a preferred forecast range of 85-143 percent growth in residential per capita electricity demand over 2009-2025. Our analysis suggests that per capita income growth drives a 43% increase, with the remainder due to an unexplained time trend. Roughly one-third of the income-driven demand comes from increases in the stock of specific major appliances, particularly AC units. The other two-thirds comes from non-specific sources of income-driven growth and is based on an estimated income elasticity that falls from 0.28 to 0.11 as income rises. While the stock of refrigerators is not projected to increase, we find that they contribute nearly 20 percent of household electricity demand. Alternative plausible time trend assumptions are responsible for the wide range of 85-143 percent. Meanwhile we estimate a price elasticity of demand of -0.7. These estimates point to carbon pricing and appliance efficiency policies that could substantially reduce demand.
Published Version (Please cite this version)10.1016/j.reseneeco.2017.10.003
Publication InfoCao, Jing; Ho, Mun Sing; Li, Yating; Newell, Richard G; & Pizer, William Aaron (2017). Chinese residential electricity consumption: Estimation and forecast using micro-data. Resource and Energy Economics. 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2017.10.003. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/16753.
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I study Environmental Economics and Energy. My research interests include the relationship between energy consumption and economic development, energy consumption and carbon emissions in international trade and foreign direct investments and China's energy issues. I also keep an eye on the energy-related global governance issues. I've participated in writing and editing the first edition of China's Energy Outlook. My current work focuses on modeling the energy demand in China's residential secto
Dr. Richard G. Newell is the President and CEO of Resources for the Future (RFF), an independent, nonprofit research institution that improves environmental, energy, and natural resource decisions through impartial economic research and policy engagement. From 2009 to 2011, he served as the administrator of the US Energy Information Administration, the agency responsible for official US government energy statistics and analysis. Dr. Newell is an adjunct professor at Duke University, where he
Professor in the Sanford School of Public Policy
Billy Pizer joined the faculty of the Sanford School of Public Policy at Duke University in the fall of 2011. He also was appointed a faculty fellow in the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, a nonpartisan institute at Duke that focuses on finding solutions to some of the nation's most pressing environmental challenges. His current research examines how we value the future benefits of climate change mitigation, how environmental regulation and climate policy can af
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