Quantifying Gerrymandering in North Carolina
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Using an ensemble of redistricting plans, we evaluate whether a given political districting faithfully represents the geo-political landscape. Redistricting plans are sampled by a Monte Carlo algorithm from a probability distribution that adheres to realistic and non-partisan criteria. Using the sampled redistricting plans and historical voting data, we produce an ensemble of elections that reveal geo-political structure within the state. We showcase our methods on the two most recent districtings of NC for the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as a plan drawn by a bipartisan redistricting panel. We find the two state enacted plans are highly atypical outliers whereas the bipartisan plan accurately represents the ensemble both in partisan outcome and in the fine scale structure of district-level results.
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Professor of Mathematics
Jonathan Christopher Mattingly grew up in Charlotte, NC where he attended Irwin Ave elementary and Charlotte Country Day. He graduated from the NC School of Science and Mathematics and received a BS is Applied Mathematics with a concentration in physics from Yale University. After two years abroad with a year spent at ENS Lyon studying nonlinear and statistical physics on a Rotary Fellowship, he returned to the US to attend Princeton University where he obtained a PhD in Applied and