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Quantified, Localized Health Benefits of Accelerated Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions.

dc.contributor.author Shindell, Drew
dc.contributor.author Faluvegi, Greg
dc.contributor.author Seltzer, Karl
dc.contributor.author Shindell, Cary
dc.date.accessioned 2018-09-21T16:17:47Z
dc.date.available 2018-09-21T16:17:47Z
dc.date.issued 2018-01
dc.identifier.issn 1758-678X
dc.identifier.issn 1758-6798
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/10161/17534
dc.description.abstract Societal risks increase as Earth warms, but also for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate even if they lead to identical warming [1]. Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations [2]. A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits [3, 4]. However, 2°C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5°C trajectories require elimination of most fossil fuel related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing ambition of 21st century CO2 reductions by 180 GtC; an amount that would shift a 'standard' 2°C scenario to 1.5°C or could achieve 2°C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153±43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with ~40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and >200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia.
dc.language eng
dc.publisher NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
dc.relation.ispartof Nature climate change
dc.relation.isversionof 10.1038/s41558-018-0108-y
dc.subject Science & Technology
dc.subject Life Sciences & Biomedicine
dc.subject Physical Sciences
dc.subject Environmental Sciences
dc.subject Environmental Studies
dc.subject Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
dc.subject Environmental Sciences & Ecology
dc.subject FUTURE CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
dc.subject AMBIENT AIR-POLLUTION
dc.subject 1.5 DEGREES-C
dc.subject GLOBAL BURDEN
dc.subject MORTALITY
dc.subject DISEASE
dc.subject EXPOSURE
dc.subject METHANE
dc.subject OZONE
dc.title Quantified, Localized Health Benefits of Accelerated Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions.
dc.type Journal article
dc.date.updated 2018-09-21T16:17:45Z
pubs.begin-page 291
pubs.end-page 295
pubs.issue 4
pubs.organisational-group Nicholas School of the Environment
pubs.organisational-group Duke
pubs.organisational-group Earth and Ocean Sciences
pubs.organisational-group Duke Global Health Institute
pubs.organisational-group University Institutes and Centers
pubs.organisational-group Institutes and Provost's Academic Units
pubs.publication-status Published
pubs.volume 8
duke.contributor.orcid Shindell, Drew|0000-0003-1552-4715


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