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Climate and health impacts of US emissions reductions consistent with 2 °C

dc.contributor.author Shindell, Drew
dc.contributor.author Lee, Yunha
dc.contributor.author Faluvegi, Greg
dc.date.accessioned 2018-09-21T16:23:18Z
dc.date.available 2018-09-21T16:23:18Z
dc.date.issued 2016-05
dc.identifier.issn 1758-678X
dc.identifier.issn 1758-6798
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/10161/17535
dc.description.abstract © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. An emissions trajectory for the US consistent with 2 °C warming would require marked societal changes, making it crucial to understand the associated benefits. Previous studies have examined technological potentials and implementation costs and public health benefits have been quantified for less-aggressive potential emissions-reduction policies (for example, refs,), but researchers have not yet fully explored the multiple benefits of reductions consistent with 2 °C. We examine the impacts of such highly ambitious scenarios for clean energy and vehicles. US transportation emissions reductions avoid ∼0.03 °C global warming in 2030 (0.15 °C in 2100), whereas energy emissions reductions avoid ∼0.05-0.07 °C 2030 warming (∼0.25 °C in 2100). Nationally, however, clean energy policies produce climate disbenefits including warmer summers (although these would be eliminated by the remote effects of similar policies if they were undertaken elsewhere). The policies also greatly reduce damaging ambient particulate matter and ozone. By 2030, clean energy policies could prevent ∼175,000 premature deaths, with ∼22,000 (11,000-96,000; 95% confidence) fewer annually thereafter, whereas clean transportation could prevent ∼120,000 premature deaths and ∼14,000 (9,000-52,000) annually thereafter. Near-term national benefits are valued at ∼US$250 billion (140 billion to 1,050 billion) per year, which is likely to exceed implementation costs. Including longer-term, worldwide climate impacts, benefits roughly quintuple, becoming ∼5-10 times larger than estimated implementation costs. Achieving the benefits, however, would require both larger and broader emissions reductions than those in current legislation or regulations.
dc.language English
dc.publisher NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
dc.relation.ispartof Nature Climate Change
dc.relation.isversionof 10.1038/nclimate2935
dc.subject Science & Technology
dc.subject Life Sciences & Biomedicine
dc.subject Physical Sciences
dc.subject Environmental Sciences
dc.subject Environmental Studies
dc.subject Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
dc.subject Environmental Sciences & Ecology
dc.subject PARTICULATE AIR-POLLUTION
dc.subject GLOBAL BURDEN
dc.subject BLACK CARBON
dc.subject LUNG-CANCER
dc.subject MORTALITY
dc.subject OZONE
dc.subject EXPOSURE
dc.subject BENEFITS
dc.subject QUALITY
dc.subject MATTER
dc.title Climate and health impacts of US emissions reductions consistent with 2 °C
dc.type Journal article
dc.date.updated 2018-09-21T16:23:11Z
pubs.begin-page 503
pubs.end-page 507
pubs.issue 5
pubs.organisational-group Nicholas School of the Environment
pubs.organisational-group Duke
pubs.organisational-group Earth and Ocean Sciences
pubs.organisational-group Duke Global Health Institute
pubs.organisational-group University Institutes and Centers
pubs.organisational-group Institutes and Provost's Academic Units
pubs.publication-status Published
pubs.volume 6
duke.contributor.orcid Shindell, Drew|0000-0003-1552-4715


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