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Using Early Childhood Behavior Problems to Predict Adult Convictions.

dc.contributor.author Coie, John
dc.contributor.author Lochman, John
dc.contributor.author Dodge, Kenneth
dc.contributor.author Kassing, Francesca
dc.contributor.author Godwin, Jennifer
dc.date.accessioned 2018-11-01T14:16:54Z
dc.date.available 2018-11-01T14:16:54Z
dc.date.issued 2018-10-03
dc.identifier.issn 0091-0627
dc.identifier.issn 1573-2835
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/10161/17614
dc.description.abstract The current study examined whether teacher and parent ratings of externalizing behavior during kindergarten and 1st grade accurately predicted the presence of adult convictions by age 25. Data were collected as part of the Fast Track Project. Schools were identified based on poverty and crime rates in four locations: Durham, NC, Nashville, TN, Seattle, WA, and rural, central PA. Teacher and parent screening measures of externalizing behavior were collected at the end of kindergarten and 1st grade. ROC curves were used to visually depict the tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity and best model fit was determined. Five of the six combinations of screen scores across time points and raters met both the specificity and sensitivity cutoffs for a well-performing screening tool. When data were examined within each site separately, screen scores performed better in sites with high base rates and models including single teacher screens accurately predicted convictions. Similarly, screen scores performed better and could be used more parsimoniously for males, but not females (whose base rates were lower in this sample). Overall, results indicated that early elementary screens for conduct problems perform remarkably well when predicting criminal convictions 20 years later. However, because of variations in base rates, screens operated differently by gender and location. The results indicated that for populations with high base rates, convictions can be accurately predicted with as little as one teacher screen taken during kindergarten or 1st grade, increasing the cost-effectiveness of preventative interventions.
dc.language eng
dc.relation.ispartof Journal of abnormal child psychology
dc.relation.isversionof 10.1007/s10802-018-0478-7
dc.subject Conduct Problems Prevention Research Group
dc.title Using Early Childhood Behavior Problems to Predict Adult Convictions.
dc.type Journal article
dc.date.updated 2018-11-01T14:16:51Z
pubs.organisational-group Trinity College of Arts & Sciences
pubs.organisational-group Duke
pubs.organisational-group Psychology and Neuroscience
pubs.organisational-group Sanford School of Public Policy
pubs.organisational-group Duke Population Research Institute
pubs.organisational-group Center for Child and Family Policy
pubs.organisational-group Duke Population Research Center
pubs.organisational-group Duke Science & Society
pubs.organisational-group Initiatives
pubs.organisational-group Institutes and Provost's Academic Units
pubs.organisational-group Duke Institute for Brain Sciences
pubs.organisational-group University Institutes and Centers
pubs.organisational-group School of Medicine
pubs.organisational-group Psychiatry, Child & Family Mental Health and Developmental Neuroscience
pubs.organisational-group Psychiatry & Behavioral Sciences
pubs.organisational-group Clinical Science Departments
pubs.publication-status Published


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