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Durham, North Carolina is at the center of the metropolitan region known as the Research
Triangle. This area is experiencing rapid and sprawling growth. In addition, there
is a lack of substantial public transportation, which results in a high level of reliance
on personal automobiles. This research aims to examine how reliance on personal
automobiles in one aspect of the lives of residents, the daily work commute, can be
reduced in order to reduce aggregate vehicle kilometers travelled (VKTs). The transportation
mode choices of walking, bicycling, busing, carpooling and vanpooling were examined
as potential mode choices that commuters could switch to if given an economic incentive
to do so.
A set of equations were developed based on EPA mobile source emissions models and
regional data to determine how reductions in VKTs could affect air pollution emissions.
A contingent choice survey was developed and sent, via email, to a sample of employees
of Duke University and Hospital, in order to determine the marginal willingness to
accept payment for an alternative commute. A mode choice model was developed using
logit regression techniques based on the survey results to extrapolate the behaviors
to employees of Duke at large and commuters to the City of Durham. A log-transformed
bid variable was determined to be the most appropriate functional form to predict
the likelihood of switching modes. Finally, marginal economic damages of air pollutants
were obtained from peer-reviewed research and the economically efficient level of
potential benefits were estimated.
The air quality models showed that the criteria air pollutants examined were dealt
with well under existing policy. Concerning Carbon Dioxide, the resulting calculations
showed that only when the marginal damages of pollution are quite high do the equated
marginal benefits provided to a person to reduce their commuting footprint begin to
have substantial impacts on VKTs.
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