Modeling manpower requirement for a changing population health needs: The case of ophthalmic nurses and allied health ophthalmic professionals
Abstract
Background: Prevalence of chronic eye conditions has been shown to increase with age.
As the global population continues to age rapidly, the demand for eye care services
is expected to increase significantly in the near future, requiring effective health
workforce planning in order to provide for the needs of the population. The aim of
this paper is to synthesize data from a variety of sources to develop a simulation
model based on the systems modelling methodology of system dynamics that links population
health needs to workforce requirements to generate evidence-based projections for
ophthalmic nurses, and allied health ophthalmic professionals in Singapore. Methods:
A system dynamics simulation model was developed with active engagement of key stakeholders—such
as ophthalmologists, senior nurses, healthcare planners and managers, and senior technicians—to
verify the model structure and assumptions. The model project the future requirement
of ophthalmic nurses, technicians and patient service assistants. Results: The number
of Singaporeans with eye diseases is projected to more than double by 2040. As a result,
the demand for eye care services and eye care workforce is expected to increase significantly
under all the plausible scenarios. The increase in eye disease burden is due mainly
to population aging—given that the prevalence of eye disease increases with age. Conclusion:
This research provides a future demand outlook for ophthalmic nurses, technicians
and patient service assistants in Singapore and has implications for recruitment and
training of ophthalmic nurses and allied health professionals in Singapore.
Type
Journal articleSubject
Science & TechnologyLife Sciences & Biomedicine
Health Policy & Services
Health Care Sciences & Services
Allied health ophthalmic personnel
Simulation
Workforce planning
Singapore
SUPPLY-AND-DEMAND
SYSTEM DYNAMICS
CARE WORKFORCE
POLICY
PREVALENCE
EYE
ERA
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https://hdl.handle.net/10161/22779Published Version (Please cite this version)
10.1016/j.hlpt.2019.08.004Publication Info
Ansah, JP; Koh, V; De Korne, D; Jayabaskar, T; Matchar, DB; & Quek, D (2019). Modeling manpower requirement for a changing population health needs: The case of
ophthalmic nurses and allied health ophthalmic professionals. Health Policy and Technology, 8(3). pp. 282-295. 10.1016/j.hlpt.2019.08.004. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/22779.This is constructed from limited available data and may be imprecise. To cite this
article, please review & use the official citation provided by the journal.
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Show full item recordScholars@Duke
David Bruce Matchar
Professor of Medicine
My research relates to clinical practice improvement - from the development of clinical
policies to their implementation in real world clinical settings. Most recently my
major content focus has been cerebrovascular disease. Other major clinical areas in
which I work include the range of disabling neurological conditions, cardiovascular
disease, and cancer prevention. Notable features of my work are: (1) reliance on
analytic strategies such as meta-analysis, simulation, decision analy

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