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Projecting the Number of Elderly with Cognitive Impairment in China Using a Multi-State Dynamic Population Model

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Date
2017-04-01
Authors
Ansah, JP
Koh, V
Chiu, CT
Chei, CL
Zeng, Y
Yin, ZX
Shi, XM
Matchar, DB
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Abstract
China is aging rapidly, and the number of Chinese elderly with dementia is expected to rise. This paper projects, up to year 2060, the number of Chinese elderly within four distinct cognitive states. A multi-state population model was developed using system dynamics and parametrized with age–gender-specific transition rates (between intact, mild, moderate and severe cognitive impairment and death) estimated from two waves (2012 and 2014) of a community-based cohort of elderly in China aged ≥65 years (N = 1824). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis and the bootstrap method was used to obtain the 95% confidence interval of the transition rates. The number of elderly with any degree of cognitive impairment increases; with severe cognitive impairment increasing the most, at 698%. Among elderly with cognitive impairment, the proportion of very old elderly (age ≥ 80) is expected to rise from 53% to 78% by 2060. This will affect the demand for social and health services China. Copyright © 2017 System Dynamics Society.
Type
Journal article
Subject
Social Sciences
Management
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Business & Economics
Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences
MINI-MENTAL-STATE
ALZHEIMERS-DISEASE
RISK-FACTORS
DEMENTIA
CARE
PREVALENCE
HEALTH
TRANSITIONS
STRATEGIES
MORTALITY
Permalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/22809
Published Version (Please cite this version)
10.1002/sdr.1581
Publication Info
Ansah, JP; Koh, V; Chiu, CT; Chei, CL; Zeng, Y; Yin, ZX; ... Matchar, DB (2017). Projecting the Number of Elderly with Cognitive Impairment in China Using a Multi-State Dynamic Population Model. System Dynamics Review, 33(2). pp. 89-111. 10.1002/sdr.1581. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/22809.
This is constructed from limited available data and may be imprecise. To cite this article, please review & use the official citation provided by the journal.
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Scholars@Duke

Matchar

David Bruce Matchar

Professor of Medicine
My research relates to clinical practice improvement - from the development of clinical policies to their implementation in real world clinical settings. Most recently my major content focus has been cerebrovascular disease. Other major clinical areas in which I work include the range of disabling neurological conditions, cardiovascular disease, and cancer prevention. Notable features of my work are: (1) reliance on analytic strategies such as meta-analysis, simulation, decision analy
Zeng

Yi Zeng

Professor in Medicine
(1) Socioeconomic, behavior, environmental and genetic determinants of healthy aging and healthy longevity; (2) Factors related to elderly disability and mental health; (3) Methods of family households and elderly living arrangements forecasting/analysis and their applications in health services and socioeconomic planning, and market studies; (4) Policy analysis in population aging, social welfare, retirement, and fertility transitions.
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