Projecting the Number of Elderly with Cognitive Impairment in China Using a Multi-State Dynamic Population Model
Abstract
China is aging rapidly, and the number of Chinese elderly with dementia is expected
to rise. This paper projects, up to year 2060, the number of Chinese elderly within
four distinct cognitive states. A multi-state population model was developed using
system dynamics and parametrized with age–gender-specific transition rates (between
intact, mild, moderate and severe cognitive impairment and death) estimated from two
waves (2012 and 2014) of a community-based cohort of elderly in China aged ≥65 years
(N = 1824). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis and the bootstrap method was used to
obtain the 95% confidence interval of the transition rates. The number of elderly
with any degree of cognitive impairment increases; with severe cognitive impairment
increasing the most, at 698%. Among elderly with cognitive impairment, the proportion
of very old elderly (age ≥ 80) is expected to rise from 53% to 78% by 2060. This will
affect the demand for social and health services China. Copyright © 2017 System Dynamics
Society.
Type
Journal articleSubject
Social SciencesManagement
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Business & Economics
Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences
MINI-MENTAL-STATE
ALZHEIMERS-DISEASE
RISK-FACTORS
DEMENTIA
CARE
PREVALENCE
HEALTH
TRANSITIONS
STRATEGIES
MORTALITY
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https://hdl.handle.net/10161/22809Published Version (Please cite this version)
10.1002/sdr.1581Publication Info
Ansah, JP; Koh, V; Chiu, CT; Chei, CL; Zeng, Y; Yin, ZX; ... Matchar, DB (2017). Projecting the Number of Elderly with Cognitive Impairment in China Using a Multi-State
Dynamic Population Model. System Dynamics Review, 33(2). pp. 89-111. 10.1002/sdr.1581. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/22809.This is constructed from limited available data and may be imprecise. To cite this
article, please review & use the official citation provided by the journal.
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Show full item recordScholars@Duke
David Bruce Matchar
Professor of Medicine
My research relates to clinical practice improvement - from the development of clinical
policies to their implementation in real world clinical settings. Most recently my
major content focus has been cerebrovascular disease. Other major clinical areas in
which I work include the range of disabling neurological conditions, cardiovascular
disease, and cancer prevention. Notable features of my work are: (1) reliance on
analytic strategies such as meta-analysis, simulation, decision analy
Yi Zeng
Professor in Medicine
(1) Socioeconomic, behavior, environmental and genetic determinants of healthy aging
and healthy longevity; (2) Factors related to elderly disability and mental health;
(3) Methods of family households and elderly living arrangements forecasting/analysis
and their applications in health services and socioeconomic planning, and market studies;
(4) Policy analysis in population aging, social welfare, retirement, and fertility
transitions.
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