Projecting the number of older singaporeans with activity of daily living limitations requiring human assistance through 2030.
Abstract
<h4>Introduction</h4>In the context of rapid population ageing and the increase in
number of activity of daily living (ADL) limitations with age, the number of older
persons requiring human assistance in Singapore is likely to grow. To promote informed
planning for the needs of these elderly, we project the number of resident Singaporeans
60 years of age and older with 1 or more ADL limitations requiring human assistance
through 2030.<h4>Materials and methods</h4>The proportion of community-dwelling older
adults with ADL limitations requiring human assistance, stratified by gender and age
group, was calculated utilising a recent nationally-representative survey of older
Singaporeans. The proportion of older adults in nursing homes with ADL limitations
was estimated based on available literature. Together, these prevalence estimates
were applied to a simulation of the future population of older adults in Singapore
to derive an estimate of the number of individuals with ADL limitations requiring
human assistance through 2030.<h4>Results</h4>By 2030, the number of resident Singaporeans
aged 60 years or older with 1 or more ADL limitations requiring human assistance is
projected to be 82,968 persons (7% of the total population aged 60 years or older).
Of this number, 38,809 (47%) are estimated to have 1 or 2 ADL limitations, and 44,159
(53%) are estimated to have 3 or more.<h4>Conclusion</h4>The number of elderly Singaporeans
with activity limitations is expected grow rapidly from 31,738 in 2010 to 82,968 in
2030. Estimates of the number of older individuals with ADL limitations requiring
human assistance are of value for policymakers as well as acute and long-term care
capacity planners as they seek to meet demand for health and social services in Singapore.
Type
Journal articleSubject
HumansLong-Term Care
Activities of Daily Living
Forecasting
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Middle Aged
Homes for the Aged
Health Services for the Aged
Singapore
Female
Male
Independent Living
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Show full item recordScholars@Duke
David Bruce Matchar
Professor of Medicine
My research relates to clinical practice improvement - from the development of clinical
policies to their implementation in real world clinical settings. Most recently my
major content focus has been cerebrovascular disease. Other major clinical areas in
which I work include the range of disabling neurological conditions, cardiovascular
disease, and cancer prevention. Notable features of my work are: (1) reliance on
analytic strategies such as meta-analysis, simulation, decision analy
Truls Ostbye
Professor of Family Medicine and Community Health
Chronic disease epidemiology; obesity; health services research; population health;
public health; social medicine; health information systems; health surveys; programme
evaluation; clinical trials; aging; nutrition; dementia; Global Health
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