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<p>Background/ObjectivesAfrica has only 1% of the global neurosurgery workforce, despite
having 14% of the global population and 15% of the global neurosurgical disease burden.
Also, neurosurgical training is hampered by paucity of training institutions, dearth
of training faculty, and deficiency of optimal training resources. The study appraises
the current specialist neurosurgical workforce in Africa, evaluates the major neurosurgery
training programs, and projects the 2030 workforce capacity using current growth trends.
Methods
The study involved systematic and gray literature search, with quantitative analysis
of retrospective data on the neurosurgery workforce, qualitative evaluation of the
major neurosurgery training programs for their strength, weaknesses, opportunities,
and threats, and projection modeling of the workforce capacity up to year 2030.
Results
1,974 neurosurgeons serve 1.3 billion people (density 0.15/100,000; ratio 1:678,740),
in Africa, with the majority (1,271; 64.39%) in North Africa. There are 106 specialist
neurosurgery training institutions in 26 African countries, with North Africa having
52 (49.05%) of the training centers. Training is heterogenous, with the major programs
being the West African College of Surgeons (WACS) - 24 centers across 7 countries,
and the College of Surgeons of East, Central and Southern Africa (COSECSA) - 17 centers
in 8 countries. At the current linear growth rate of 74.2 neurosurgeons/year or exponential
growth rate of 6.81% per annum, Africa will have 2,716 - 3,813 neurosurgeons by 2030,
with a deficit of 4,795 - 11,953 neurosurgeons. The continent requires a scale-up
of its linear growth rate to 663.4 - 1269.5 neurosurgeons/year, or exponential growth
rate to 15.87% - 22.21% per annum to meet its needs. While North African countries
will likely meet their 2030 workforce requirements, sub-Saharan African countries
will have significant workforce deficits.
Conclusion
Despite a recent surge in neurosurgery residency training, the current state of Africa’s
neurosurgery workforce is dire, and many countries will be unable to meet their workforce
requirements by 2030 at current growth trends. A significant scale-up of the neurosurgery
workforce is required in order to meet these targets.</p>
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