| dc.description.abstract |
<p>This paper investigates climate change impact on the water resources in the Greenbrier
basin using a distributed hydrological model VIC and future climate series. The GCM
outputs under the SRES A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario is downscaled and bias-corrected
by the BCCAQ method to obtain the future climate series. The VIC model performance
is satisfactory with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) of 0.62 and 0.58
in calibration and validation periods. The bias-corrected precipitation and temperature
indicate a warmer and more humid climate with precipitation and temperature increase
by 14% and 1.8°C in the future. Under climate change background, the mean annual cycles
of water balance components keep similar seasonal fluctuation but have larger magnitudes
in the future. The discharge in the future also has close monthly distribution with
that in the historical observations. The results show that the future discharge is
larger than historical observation, implying water resources would be more abundant
in summer from 2046 to 2065. The hydrological simulations in the Greenbrier basin
have a system error of underestimating the peak flows, and the extreme discharge would
be larger and more frequent in the mid of 21st century.</p>
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