Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests.
Abstract
The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting
global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect
forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we
analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium
climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor
of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius),
primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest
forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than
observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation
potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's
climate.
Type
Journal articleSubject
TreesCarbon
Biomass
Tropical Climate
Acclimatization
Wood
Hot Temperature
Climate Change
Carbon Cycle
Forests
Earth, Planet
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https://hdl.handle.net/10161/23428Published Version (Please cite this version)
10.1126/science.aaw7578Publication Info
Sullivan, Martin JP; Lewis, Simon L; Affum-Baffoe, Kofi; Castilho, Carolina; Costa,
Flávia; Sanchez, Aida Cuni; ... Phillips, Oliver L (2020). Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests. Science (New York, N.Y.), 368(6493). pp. 869-874. 10.1126/science.aaw7578. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/23428.This is constructed from limited available data and may be imprecise. To cite this
article, please review & use the official citation provided by the journal.
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Show full item recordScholars@Duke
John Poulsen
Associate Professor of Tropical Ecology
John Poulsen is an ecologist with broad interests in the maintenance and regeneration
of tropical forests and conservation of biodiversity. His research has focused on
the effects of anthropogenic disturbance, such as logging and hunting, on forest structure
and diversity, abundance of tropical animals, and ecological processes. He has conducted
most of his research in Central Africa, where he has also worked as a conservation
manager, directing projects to sustainably manage natural resources i
John W. Terborgh
James B. Duke Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences
John W. Terborgh is a James B. Duke Professor of Environmental Science and is Co-Director
of the Center for Tropical Conservation at Duke University. He is a member of the
National Academy of Science, and for the past thirty-five years, he has been actively
involved in tropical ecology and conservation issues. An authority on avian and mammalian
ecology in neotropical forests, Dr. Terborgh has published numerous articles and books
on conservation themes. Since 1973 he has operated a field statio
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