The 2020 elephant die-off in Botswana.
Abstract
The cause of deaths of 350 elephants in 2020 in a relatively small unprotected area
of northern Botswana is unknown, and may never be known. Media speculations about
it ignore ecological realities. Worse, they make conjectures that can be detrimental
to wildlife and sometimes discredit conservation incentives. A broader understanding
of the ecological and conservation issues speaks to elephant management across the
Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area that extends across Botswana, Namibia,
Angola, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Our communication addresses these. Malicious poisoning
and poaching are unlikely to have played a role. Other species were unaffected, and
elephant carcases had their tusks intact. Restriction of freshwater supplies that
force elephants to use pans as a water source possibly polluted by blue-green algae
blooms is a possible cause, but as yet not supported by evidence. No other species
were involved. A contagious disease is the more probable one. Fences and a deep channel
of water confine these elephants' dispersal. These factors explain the elephants'
relatively high population growth rate despite a spell of increased poaching during
2014-2018. While the deaths represent only ~2% of the area's elephants, the additive
effects of poaching and stress induced by people protecting their crops cause alarm.
Confinement and relatively high densities probably explain why the die-off occurred
only here. It suggests a re-alignment or removal of fences that restrict elephant
movements and limits year-round access to freshwater.
Type
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https://hdl.handle.net/10161/23511Published Version (Please cite this version)
10.7717/peerj.10686Publication Info
van Aarde, Rudi J; Pimm, Stuart L; Guldemond, Robert; Huang, Ryan; & Maré, Celesté (2021). The 2020 elephant die-off in Botswana. PeerJ, 9. pp. e10686. 10.7717/peerj.10686. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/23511.This is constructed from limited available data and may be imprecise. To cite this
article, please review & use the official citation provided by the journal.
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Stuart L. Pimm
Doris Duke Distinguished Professor of Conservation Ecology in the Nicholas School
of the Environment and Earth Sciences
Stuart Pimm is a world leader in the study of present-day extinctions and what can
be done to prevent them. His research covers the reasons why species become extinct,
how fast they do so, the global patterns of habitat loss and species extinction and,
importantly, the management consequences of this research. Pimm received his BSc degree
from Oxford University in 1971 and his Ph.D. from New Mexico State University in 1974.
Pimm is the author of over 350 scientific papers and five books. He i

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