An Examination of the Relationship between the Conservation Reserve Program and Stumpage Prices in the South

Abstract

Declines in stumpage prices have been linked to the Conservation Reserve Program, which may have influenced overall planting volume, and thus, supply, in the South since inception in 1986. This project investigates historic trends in planting volumes across private, industrial, and public dimensions in the 20th century and reports key findings on the relationship between those developments and shifts in demand and volatility in stumpage prices. Results indicate that (1) variation in pine sawtimber stumpage correlates more to demand drivers than acreage planted while (2) pine pulpwood stumpage prices are more correlated to acreage planted than to shifts in demand. While these results illuminate the overall impact of acreage planted on stumpage prices, additional findings indicate that the Conservation Reserve Program did not meaningfully contribute to an oversupply over operational inventory in the South