Show simple item record

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

dc.contributor.author Cramer, Estee Y
dc.contributor.author Ray, Evan L
dc.contributor.author Lopez, Velma K
dc.contributor.author Bracher, Johannes
dc.contributor.author Brennen, Andrea
dc.contributor.author Castro Rivadeneira, Alvaro J
dc.contributor.author Gerding, Aaron
dc.contributor.author Gneiting, Tilmann
dc.contributor.author House, Katie H
dc.contributor.author Huang, Yuxin
dc.contributor.author Jayawardena, Dasuni
dc.contributor.author Kanji, Abdul H
dc.contributor.author Khandelwal, Ayush
dc.contributor.author Le, Khoa
dc.contributor.author Mühlemann, Anja
dc.contributor.author Niemi, Jarad
dc.contributor.author Shah, Apurv
dc.contributor.author Stark, Ariane
dc.contributor.author Wang, Yijin
dc.contributor.author Wattanachit, Nutcha
dc.contributor.author Zorn, Martha W
dc.contributor.author Gu, Youyang
dc.contributor.author Jain, Sansiddh
dc.contributor.author Bannur, Nayana
dc.contributor.author Deva, Ayush
dc.contributor.author Kulkarni, Mihir
dc.contributor.author Merugu, Srujana
dc.contributor.author Raval, Alpan
dc.contributor.author Shingi, Siddhant
dc.contributor.author Tiwari, Avtansh
dc.contributor.author White, Jerome
dc.contributor.author Abernethy, Neil F
dc.contributor.author Woody, Spencer
dc.contributor.author Dahan, Maytal
dc.contributor.author Fox, Spencer
dc.contributor.author Gaither, Kelly
dc.contributor.author Lachmann, Michael
dc.contributor.author Meyers, Lauren Ancel
dc.contributor.author Scott, James G
dc.contributor.author Tec, Mauricio
dc.contributor.author Srivastava, Ajitesh
dc.contributor.author George, Glover E
dc.contributor.author Cegan, Jeffrey C
dc.contributor.author Dettwiller, Ian D
dc.contributor.author England, William P
dc.contributor.author Farthing, Matthew W
dc.contributor.author Hunter, Robert H
dc.contributor.author Lafferty, Brandon
dc.contributor.author Linkov, Igor
dc.contributor.author Mayo, Michael L
dc.contributor.author Parno, Matthew D
dc.contributor.author Rowland, Michael A
dc.contributor.author Trump, Benjamin D
dc.contributor.author Zhang-James, Yanli
dc.contributor.author Chen, Samuel
dc.contributor.author Faraone, Stephen V
dc.contributor.author Hess, Jonathan
dc.contributor.author Morley, Christopher P
dc.contributor.author Salekin, Asif
dc.contributor.author Wang, Dongliang
dc.contributor.author Corsetti, Sabrina M
dc.contributor.author Baer, Thomas M
dc.contributor.author Eisenberg, Marisa C
dc.contributor.author Falb, Karl
dc.contributor.author Huang, Yitao
dc.contributor.author Martin, Emily T
dc.contributor.author McCauley, Ella
dc.contributor.author Myers, Robert L
dc.contributor.author Schwarz, Tom
dc.contributor.author Sheldon, Daniel
dc.contributor.author Gibson, Graham Casey
dc.contributor.author Yu, Rose
dc.contributor.author Gao, Liyao
dc.contributor.author Ma, Yian
dc.contributor.author Wu, Dongxia
dc.contributor.author Yan, Xifeng
dc.contributor.author Jin, Xiaoyong
dc.contributor.author Wang, Yu-Xiang
dc.contributor.author Chen, YangQuan
dc.contributor.author Guo, Lihong
dc.contributor.author Zhao, Yanting
dc.contributor.author Gu, Quanquan
dc.contributor.author Chen, Jinghui
dc.contributor.author Wang, Lingxiao
dc.contributor.author Xu, Pan
dc.contributor.author Zhang, Weitong
dc.contributor.author Zou, Difan
dc.contributor.author Biegel, Hannah
dc.contributor.author Lega, Joceline
dc.contributor.author McConnell, Steve
dc.contributor.author Nagraj, VP
dc.contributor.author Guertin, Stephanie L
dc.contributor.author Hulme-Lowe, Christopher
dc.contributor.author Turner, Stephen D
dc.contributor.author Shi, Yunfeng
dc.contributor.author Ban, Xuegang
dc.contributor.author Walraven, Robert
dc.contributor.author Hong, Qi-Jun
dc.contributor.author Kong, Stanley
dc.contributor.author van de Walle, Axel
dc.contributor.author Turtle, James A
dc.contributor.author Ben-Nun, Michal
dc.contributor.author Riley, Steven
dc.contributor.author Riley, Pete
dc.contributor.author Koyluoglu, Ugur
dc.contributor.author DesRoches, David
dc.contributor.author Forli, Pedro
dc.contributor.author Hamory, Bruce
dc.contributor.author Kyriakides, Christina
dc.contributor.author Leis, Helen
dc.contributor.author Milliken, John
dc.contributor.author Moloney, Michael
dc.contributor.author Morgan, James
dc.contributor.author Nirgudkar, Ninad
dc.contributor.author Ozcan, Gokce
dc.contributor.author Piwonka, Noah
dc.contributor.author Ravi, Matt
dc.contributor.author Schrader, Chris
dc.contributor.author Shakhnovich, Elizabeth
dc.contributor.author Siegel, Daniel
dc.contributor.author Spatz, Ryan
dc.contributor.author Stiefeling, Chris
dc.contributor.author Wilkinson, Barrie
dc.contributor.author Wong, Alexander
dc.contributor.author Cavany, Sean
dc.contributor.author España, Guido
dc.contributor.author Moore, Sean
dc.contributor.author Oidtman, Rachel
dc.contributor.author Perkins, Alex
dc.contributor.author Kraus, David
dc.contributor.author Kraus, Andrea
dc.contributor.author Gao, Zhifeng
dc.contributor.author Bian, Jiang
dc.contributor.author Cao, Wei
dc.contributor.author Lavista Ferres, Juan
dc.contributor.author Li, Chaozhuo
dc.contributor.author Liu, Tie-Yan
dc.contributor.author Xie, Xing
dc.contributor.author Zhang, Shun
dc.contributor.author Zheng, Shun
dc.contributor.author Vespignani, Alessandro
dc.contributor.author Chinazzi, Matteo
dc.contributor.author Davis, Jessica T
dc.contributor.author Mu, Kunpeng
dc.contributor.author Pastore Y Piontti, Ana
dc.contributor.author Xiong, Xinyue
dc.contributor.author Zheng, Andrew
dc.contributor.author Baek, Jackie
dc.contributor.author Farias, Vivek
dc.contributor.author Georgescu, Andreea
dc.contributor.author Levi, Retsef
dc.contributor.author Sinha, Deeksha
dc.contributor.author Wilde, Joshua
dc.contributor.author Perakis, Georgia
dc.contributor.author Bennouna, Mohammed Amine
dc.contributor.author Nze-Ndong, David
dc.contributor.author Singhvi, Divya
dc.contributor.author Spantidakis, Ioannis
dc.contributor.author Thayaparan, Leann
dc.contributor.author Tsiourvas, Asterios
dc.contributor.author Sarker, Arnab
dc.contributor.author Jadbabaie, Ali
dc.contributor.author Shah, Devavrat
dc.contributor.author Della Penna, Nicolas
dc.contributor.author Celi, Leo A
dc.contributor.author Sundar, Saketh
dc.contributor.author Wolfinger, Russ
dc.contributor.author Osthus, Dave
dc.contributor.author Castro, Lauren
dc.contributor.author Fairchild, Geoffrey
dc.contributor.author Michaud, Isaac
dc.contributor.author Karlen, Dean
dc.contributor.author Kinsey, Matt
dc.contributor.author Mullany, Luke C
dc.contributor.author Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin
dc.contributor.author Shin, Lauren
dc.contributor.author Tallaksen, Katharine
dc.contributor.author Wilson, Shelby
dc.contributor.author Lee, Elizabeth C
dc.contributor.author Dent, Juan
dc.contributor.author Grantz, Kyra H
dc.contributor.author Hill, Alison L
dc.contributor.author Kaminsky, Joshua
dc.contributor.author Kaminsky, Kathryn
dc.contributor.author Keegan, Lindsay T
dc.contributor.author Lauer, Stephen A
dc.contributor.author Lemaitre, Joseph C
dc.contributor.author Lessler, Justin
dc.contributor.author Meredith, Hannah R
dc.contributor.author Perez-Saez, Javier
dc.contributor.author Shah, Sam
dc.contributor.author Smith, Claire P
dc.contributor.author Truelove, Shaun A
dc.contributor.author Wills, Josh
dc.contributor.author Marshall, Maximilian
dc.contributor.author Gardner, Lauren
dc.contributor.author Nixon, Kristen
dc.contributor.author Burant, John C
dc.contributor.author Wang, Lily
dc.contributor.author Gao, Lei
dc.contributor.author Gu, Zhiling
dc.contributor.author Kim, Myungjin
dc.contributor.author Li, Xinyi
dc.contributor.author Wang, Guannan
dc.contributor.author Wang, Yueying
dc.contributor.author Yu, Shan
dc.contributor.author Reiner, Robert C
dc.contributor.author Barber, Ryan
dc.contributor.author Gakidou, Emmanuela
dc.contributor.author Hay, Simon I
dc.contributor.author Lim, Steve
dc.contributor.author Murray, Chris
dc.contributor.author Pigott, David
dc.contributor.author Gurung, Heidi L
dc.contributor.author Baccam, Prasith
dc.contributor.author Stage, Steven A
dc.contributor.author Suchoski, Bradley T
dc.contributor.author Prakash, B Aditya
dc.contributor.author Adhikari, Bijaya
dc.contributor.author Cui, Jiaming
dc.contributor.author Rodríguez, Alexander
dc.contributor.author Tabassum, Anika
dc.contributor.author Xie, Jiajia
dc.contributor.author Keskinocak, Pinar
dc.contributor.author Asplund, John
dc.contributor.author Baxter, Arden
dc.contributor.author Oruc, Buse Eylul
dc.contributor.author Serban, Nicoleta
dc.contributor.author Arik, Sercan O
dc.contributor.author Dusenberry, Mike
dc.contributor.author Epshteyn, Arkady
dc.contributor.author Kanal, Elli
dc.contributor.author Le, Long T
dc.contributor.author Li, Chun-Liang
dc.contributor.author Pfister, Tomas
dc.contributor.author Sava, Dario
dc.contributor.author Sinha, Rajarishi
dc.contributor.author Tsai, Thomas
dc.contributor.author Yoder, Nate
dc.contributor.author Yoon, Jinsung
dc.contributor.author Zhang, Leyou
dc.contributor.author Abbott, Sam
dc.contributor.author Bosse, Nikos I
dc.contributor.author Funk, Sebastian
dc.contributor.author Hellewell, Joel
dc.contributor.author Meakin, Sophie R
dc.contributor.author Sherratt, Katharine
dc.contributor.author Zhou, Mingyuan
dc.contributor.author Kalantari, Rahi
dc.contributor.author Yamana, Teresa K
dc.contributor.author Pei, Sen
dc.contributor.author Shaman, Jeffrey
dc.contributor.author Li, Michael L
dc.contributor.author Bertsimas, Dimitris
dc.contributor.author Skali Lami, Omar
dc.contributor.author Soni, Saksham
dc.contributor.author Tazi Bouardi, Hamza
dc.contributor.author Ayer, Turgay
dc.contributor.author Adee, Madeline
dc.contributor.author Chhatwal, Jagpreet
dc.contributor.author Dalgic, Ozden O
dc.contributor.author Ladd, Mary A
dc.contributor.author Linas, Benjamin P
dc.contributor.author Mueller, Peter
dc.contributor.author Xiao, Jade
dc.contributor.author Wang, Yuanjia
dc.contributor.author Wang, Qinxia
dc.contributor.author Xie, Shanghong
dc.contributor.author Zeng, Donglin
dc.contributor.author Green, Alden
dc.contributor.author Bien, Jacob
dc.contributor.author Brooks, Logan
dc.contributor.author Hu, Addison J
dc.contributor.author Jahja, Maria
dc.contributor.author McDonald, Daniel
dc.contributor.author Narasimhan, Balasubramanian
dc.contributor.author Politsch, Collin
dc.contributor.author Rajanala, Samyak
dc.contributor.author Rumack, Aaron
dc.contributor.author Simon, Noah
dc.contributor.author Tibshirani, Ryan J
dc.contributor.author Tibshirani, Rob
dc.contributor.author Ventura, Valerie
dc.contributor.author Wasserman, Larry
dc.contributor.author O'Dea, Eamon B
dc.contributor.author Drake, John M
dc.contributor.author Pagano, Robert
dc.contributor.author Tran, Quoc T
dc.contributor.author Ho, Lam Si Tung
dc.contributor.author Huynh, Huong
dc.contributor.author Walker, Jo W
dc.contributor.author Slayton, Rachel B
dc.contributor.author Johansson, Michael A
dc.contributor.author Biggerstaff, Matthew
dc.contributor.author Reich, Nicholas G
dc.date.accessioned 2023-01-23T20:50:36Z
dc.date.available 2023-01-23T20:50:36Z
dc.date.issued 2022-04
dc.identifier.issn 0027-8424
dc.identifier.issn 1091-6490
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/10161/26494
dc.description.abstract Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.
dc.language eng
dc.publisher Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
dc.relation.ispartof Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
dc.relation.isversionof 10.1073/pnas.2113561119
dc.subject Humans
dc.subject Probability
dc.subject Public Health
dc.subject Forecasting
dc.subject United States
dc.subject Pandemics
dc.subject Data Accuracy
dc.subject COVID-19
dc.title Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.
dc.type Journal article
duke.contributor.id Xu, Pan|1203906
dc.date.updated 2023-01-23T20:50:30Z
pubs.begin-page e2113561119
pubs.issue 15
pubs.organisational-group Duke
pubs.organisational-group School of Medicine
pubs.organisational-group Basic Science Departments
pubs.organisational-group Biostatistics & Bioinformatics
pubs.publication-status Published
pubs.volume 119
duke.contributor.orcid Xu, Pan|0000-0002-2559-8622


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record