The Lobby That Cried Wolf
Abstract
This thesis examines the effects of the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility
Act of 1996 (IIRIRA) on the American agricultural industry. This industry prospered
throughout the 20th century regardless of favorable immigration reform. IIRIRA contained
a particularly strong combination of border security and workplace provisions which
posed the most serious policy threat yet to the industry‘s immigrant labor supply.
However, the history of American immigration policy suggests that the legislation
would not be sufficiently implemented to achieve its intended effects. Interrupted
time series analysis of farm worker employment data demonstrates a sharp increase
in wage and hours per week growth after the implementation of IIRIRA. Mexican migrant
data corroborates the hypothesized IIRIRA influence by demonstrating a shift out of
agricultural occupations and away from traditional state destinations. Additional
specifications do not support alternative explanations based on changes in minimum
wage or welfare legislation. Thus, all evidence strongly suggests that IIRIRA is the
first piece of American immigration legislation with adverse consequences for the
U.S. agricultural industry.
Type
Honors thesisDepartment
Public Policy StudiesPermalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/3176Citation
Amgott, Jonathan (2010). The Lobby That Cried Wolf. Honors thesis, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/3176.Collections
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