AN EVALUATION OF MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE OUTBREAKS IN COLORADO AND WYOMING UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE USING GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS
Abstract
In the past two decades, the native mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae)
has decimated the pine forests of Colorado and Wyoming. These infestations are an
issue for local communities because of the loss of ecosystem services that these forests
provide, the potential for increased fire risk in the dead stands, and the unattractive
appearance of these dead trees, which result in lower property values and is an eyesore
for the local population. Previous research has linked climate change to increased
outbreak levels and the range expansion of this beetle. In my study, a geospatial
analysis was used to identify susceptible forests under current and future climate
conditions based on the mountain pine beetle’s temperature tolerance and host vegetation
requirements. A climate envelope model was used, and thus the results determine the
potential for mountain pine beetle attack but do not evaluate the results of future
attacks. Historically, cold winter temperatures limited the range and magnitude of
outbreaks; however, under the IPCC’s A1B climate scenario, nearly all of the pine
forests in the study area will be susceptible by 2050. Under this scenario, some
400,000 additional acres of forest will become susceptible to outbreaks by 2050, an
increase of about 8.5%. The new areas that will become at risk include the San Isabel
National Forest, Gunnison National Forest, Grand Mesa National Forest, and Uncompahgre
National Forest. Forested areas just to the west of Colorado Springs that were once
protected by cold winter temperatures will become increasingly susceptible to outbreaks.
Under future conditions, climate change adaptation mechanisms such as forest restoration
will be increasingly important. Because of a lack of resources for large-scale management
operations, small-scale suppression strategies, such as the use of pheromones, insecticides,
and thinning, will be particularly important at the wildlands-urban interface and
other sites of local importance. The lessons from this beetle can be used to direct
future forest and climate change policies, and highlight the need to increase resources
for adaptation in order to protect natural areas, improve landscape-level management,
reduce other stresses to the environment, and enhance the natural resilience of forest
ecosystems.
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https://hdl.handle.net/10161/3599Citation
Allen, Natalie (2011). AN EVALUATION OF MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE OUTBREAKS IN COLORADO AND WYOMING UNDER CLIMATE
CHANGE USING GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS. Master's project, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/3599.Collections
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