Analysis of Global Sea Level Rise Impact Risk Assessments
Abstract
Global sea levels currently are rising and will continue to rise far into the future.
This rise engenders significant risks to life and the environment, as it creates negative
physical, economic, and societal impacts across the globe. If the various geographic
regions across the globe are to adequately prepare for the rising sea, it is necessary
to conduct risk assessments to determine which specific impacts to address.
This paper examines a diversity of risk assessments conducted by regions worldwide.
It includes a range of studies that assess regions with differing economic capacities,
types of terrain, location, and that implement a range of methodologies. It examines
and compares the impacts included in the analyses, as well as the variable inputs
that were implemented to conduct the assessments. Through a comparison of the components
and results of a variety of risk analyses, this study provides valuable insights into
the diverse impacts that may be selected for inclusion in future sea level rise studies.
The goal of this study is to assist regions in tackling the problem of sea level rise
by providing a foundation to streamline the process for future assessments.
Based on the assessed reports, the results demonstrate that the most commonly analyzed
impacts are those to a region’s economy and population. Additionally, the impacts
to a region’s infrastructure, particularly transportation infrastructure, and total
land surface appear to be of great importance. The variable inputs that appear to
be most commonly applied to assess the impacts are storm surge and a range of sea
level rise scenarios, as opposed to one specific future sea level rise quantity.
Overall, there is no correlation between a study region and the quantity of impacts
analyzed or depth of the impacts assessed.
The majority of the studies were conducted with quantitative methods. However, it
is recommended that future assessments also include a qualitative perspective. Lastly,
omissions of variables from the reports are explored. Future impact studies should
include location-specific trends in sea level rise, as opposed to assessing the impacts
based on the global average future sea level rise prediction. It is also important
to incorporate the speed of the rise in a dynamic analysis, as well as any uncertainties
in a report’s input variables.
Type
Master's projectPermalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/3662Citation
Ward, Molly (2011). Analysis of Global Sea Level Rise Impact Risk Assessments. Master's project, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/3662.Collections
More Info
Show full item record
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
Rights for Collection: Nicholas School of the Environment
Works are deposited here by their authors, and represent their research and opinions, not that of Duke University. Some materials and descriptions may include offensive content. More info