Shifting Coastal Wetland Communities in North Carolina: An Historical Spatial Analysis of Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge
Abstract
Coastal wetlands are dynamic landscapes shaped by many factors. However, there is
growing concern that sea level rise brought on by climate change, and its associated
physical pressures (e.g. saltwater intrusion, increased flooding, accelerated erosion,
and increased storm frequency and severity), will amount to significant habitat change
and loss for these systems. The Nature Conservancy (TNC) has initiated their Climate
Change Adaptation Project in an effort to study and help mitigate for the effects
of climate change on the Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge, situated in North
Carolina’s Albemarle-Pamlico estuarine system. As a component of their project, TNC
would like to identify areas of the refuge that have undergone significant changes
in habitat type so they can better focus their adaptation strategies. Through the
examination and classification of historical aerial photography, this study informs
TNC of the overall changes in habitat that have occurred on the refuge. An overlay
analysis on data from 1932 to 2009 was completed using GIS to calculate the total
change and rates of change of the vegetative communities on the refuge, and to identify
areas of the refuge that have been changing more rapidly. This study also takes a
closer look at some fine-scale changes that occurred at two study sites near the shoreline
of the refuge, to determine if rising sea levels play a significant role in the dynamics
of these coastal wetlands. Results from CART (Classification and Regression Tree)
models indicate that sea level rise might indeed be one of the forces driving habitat
change on the refuge.
Type
Master's projectPermalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/3663Citation
Hodgkiss, Miranda (2011). Shifting Coastal Wetland Communities in North Carolina: An Historical Spatial Analysis
of Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge. Master's project, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/3663.Collections
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