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Human population growth and land conversion across Africa makes the future of wide-ranging
carnivores uncertain. For example, the African lion (Panthera leo leo) once ranged
across the entire continent – with the exception of the Sahara Desert and rainforests.
It now lives in less than a quarter of its historic range. Recent research estimates
a loss of nearly half of the lions in the past two decades. Some sources put their
numbers as low as 20,000 individuals. Given these declines, conservation organizations
propose to list the African lion as “endangered” under the U.S. Endangered Species
Act and to upgrade the species’ CITES protections from Appendix II to Appendix I.
To establish the lion’s current conservation status, I analyzed the size, distribution,
and potential connections of populations across its range in Africa. It is particularly
important to identify connected sub-populations and areas that can serve as corridors
between existing protected areas. I compile the most current scientific literature,
comparing sources to identify a current population estimate. I also use these sources
to map known lion populations, potential habitat patches, and the connections between
them. Finally, I assess the long-term viability of each lion population and determine
which qualify as “lion strongholds.”
The lion population assessment in this study has shown that over 30,000 lions remain
in approximately 3,000,000 km2 of Africa. Lions are distributed across a total of
78 habitat patches in 27 countries. Since 2002, five countries have lost their lion
populations. However, more than half of the remaining lions in Africa reside in 11
viable populations contained within protected areas that have stable or increasing
lion population trends (lion strongholds). Therefore lions are not currently threatened
with extinction and it is unlikely that the total population of free-ranging lions
in Africa will drop below 20,000 individuals. Given these findings, it is clear that
new data based on field surveys are necessary to appropriately evaluate the legal
status of the African lion.
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