Predictive Analysis of Global Renewable Energy and Infrastructure Growth in Developed, Developing and Emerging Markets
Abstract
The most attractive markets for renewable energy investment are shifting from the
developed world to emerging economies. Among the most prominent emerging economies,
China, India, and Brazil have become three of the most important global investment
markets, and the role of renewable energy in each country is becoming increasingly
important. At the same time smart grid advancements are creating above average returns
in developed countries such as the United States and Germany.
This report analyzes renewable energy investment opportunities in USA, Germany, Brazil,
China, India and Indonesia. In an effort to quantify, compare, and rank our findings
for each country, our team developed a simple model to weight each metric based on
each country’s policies, infrastructure, resources, and electric power market as they
relate to the attractiveness of renewable energy investment. We then modified the
evaluation to incorporate our client’s qualitative weighting for each evaluation criteria.
After a detailed analysis was performed, the following 3 recommendations can be made:
1. India, China and Germany have created a favorable economic and policy environment
for solar investment; however, given the global nature of the industry and current
uncertainty in the marketplace, we do not recommend investing in solar at this time.
2. Due to substantial line losses in India, and likely development of long-distance
transmission in China and Brazil, our team foresees a substantial investment opportunity
in the global transmission and distribution value chain. We recommend one discrete
investment opportunity in one of India’s state-owned electric supply companies, the
Calcutta Electric Supply Company (CESC), as well as smart grid component suppliers
such as ABB and Thomas and Betts.
3. Growth in wind power will likely continue in Germany, specifically offshore wind.
However, until the German government takes a stronger stance on its policy towards
natural gas our team recommends waiting to invest in the German wind industry as the
natural gas market may be a serious threat to the wind industry.
Type
Master's projectPermalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/4947Citation
Nolan, Mike; Naftel, Jackson IV; & Reaves, Patrick (2011). Predictive Analysis of Global Renewable Energy and Infrastructure Growth in Developed,
Developing and Emerging Markets. Master's project, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/4947.Collections
More Info
Show full item recordScholars@Duke
Albert Jackson Naftel
Instructional Staff in the Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
Rights for Collection: Nicholas School of the Environment
Works are deposited here by their authors, and represent their research and opinions, not that of Duke University. Some materials and descriptions may include offensive content. More info