Is the Interoceanic highway exporting deforestation? A comparison of the intensity of regional Amazonian deforestation drivers within Brazil, Bolivia and Peru

Abstract

The Inter-Oceanic highway is a 1.9 billion dollar project that bisects southern Amazonia between the triple border region of Peru, Brazil and Bolivia. Many believe that a project of this magnitude will not only spur the trade of goods and services between these countries, but fear that Brazil’s appalling deforestation rates will exacerbate the existing deforestation trends within Peru and Bolivia. By applying remote sensing techniques and a statistical logistic regression model I was able to depict deforestation prior to 1989, the increase between 1989 and 2000 and the cumulative effect by the year 2000, in the area of the Inter-Oceanic highway and other related human infrastructure. I found that the Peruvian deforestation rates will be exacerbated and, despite common belief, the Inter-Oceanic highway is not going to be the main culprit, but the secondary road network and population centers, that the highway will encourage. Furthermore, I project that the urban explosion of certain population centers will put under severe pressure the protected areas of Tambopata in Peru and the extractive reserve of Chico Mendes in Brazil. Finally we acknowledge that countries unique socioeconomic dynamics can clearly contradict the results of classic Pan-Amazonian deforestation models.