Modeling the urban heat island effect's impact on residential heating and cooling loads in the United States from 1960-2010
Abstract
The urban heat island effect is a phenomenon wherein the dark, hard surfaces prevalent
in heavily-developed urban areas absorb and re-radiate heat, leading to measurably
higher air temperatures in urban areas than in surrounding rural areas. A primary
consequence of the urban heat island effect is a shift in energy consumption patterns,
as increased urban air temperatures lead to greater summertime air conditioning demand
and lower wintertime space heating demand.
This study takes a three-step approach to characterizing the historical extent of
space conditioning demand in the United States, using these results to model residential
space heating and cooling loads, and identifying the share of these quantities attributable
to the urban heat island effect. First, daily average temperature records dating back
to 1960 were compiled from 9,417 U.S. climate stations listed in NOAA’s Global Historical
Climatology Network and converted into heating and cooling degree days. Individual
climate stations were then cross-referenced with regional housing characteristics
such as recommended insulation levels, housing square footage, space heating fuel
types, and air conditioner unit types. Then, climate stations’ degree day tallies
were used to model the total annual BTU or kWh demanded for space heating and air
conditioning over a range of insulation levels and furnace and air conditioner efficiencies.
Finally, modeled loads were averaged for climate stations inside and within a 50-mile
radius beyond the boundary of the country’s 20 largest metropolitan areas (ca. 2010)
and compared in order to determine the relative rise or fall in load due to the urban
heat island effect.
Results demonstrate: (1) a general warming trend from 1960-2010, expressed through
a respective decrease and increase in heating and cooling degree days over time; (2)
confirmation of the relative warming of urban areas, as they record more cooling degree
days and less heating degree days than rural areas; and (3) a logical distribution
of space heating and air conditioning loads for modeled homes with regards to geography.
For the 20 largest metropolitan areas in 2010, the urban heat island effect was measured
to reduce space heating demand by an average of 5.26-7.68 MMBTU and $91-$134 in associated
expenditures, as well as increase air conditioning demand by 155-210 kWh and $16-$21
in associated expenditures. These figures suggest that the urban heat island effect
has a larger impact on the bottom line for space heating than for air conditioning.
By modeling individual households, these results possess a scalability that can easily
be incorporated into future studies aiming to examine urban heat island-induced increases
or decreases in energy expenditures, demand for electricity, natural gas, other space
conditioning fuels, and/or greenhouse gas emissions for an entire city or country.
Type
Master's projectPermalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/5343Citation
Monbouquette, Marc R. (2012). Modeling the urban heat island effect's impact on residential heating and cooling
loads in the United States from 1960-2010. Master's project, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/5343.Collections
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