Climate change induced changes in moisture availability in eastern Wyoming ranchlands with management recommendations for adaptation
Date
2008-04-25
Author
Advisors
Baker, Paul Dr.
Barros, Ana Dr.
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Abstract
In the future there is an expectation for climate change to have impacts on both natural
systems and agricultural enterprises. A number of studies have been conducted for
the purpose of determining the effects of a changing climate on agricultural enterprises,
but most of these studies are large scale in their scope and give non-specific recommendations
for adaptation. In the United States much of agriculture, including ranching, requires
large capital shifts to change their products and as such they need to have more specific
advice as to how to respond. Having more specific advice today also means that individuals
in agriculture can start planning to adapt today, rather than being surprised a few
decades from now.
This project utilizes historical climate information and projections of future temperature
and precipitation based on IPCC regional expectations and local climate variability.
These projected values were used in two versions of the Thornwaite moisture balance
model to calculate a range of possible changes for moisture availability from 2009
to the year 2100. The estimated changes in available moisture (potential evapotranspiration,
soil moisture, atmospheric moisture deficit, etc.) were compared to the baseline values
to determine the decrease from normal values. The literature was searched to determine
the amount of decrease in moisture availability that would likely result in ecological
drought and hinder production. The evidence indicates that there will be varying
degrees of diminishing of available moisture dependent upon the amount of temperature
increase. Because of the range of possible impacts, a variety of management practice
recommendations are included, as well as mechanisms to monitor the climate more carefully
to better spot droughts as they begin. For scenarios with severe shifts in the climate,
recommendations are made to make strong changes in their production methods or the
uses of the land.
Type
Master's projectPermalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/562Citation
Fox, Rob (2008). Climate change induced changes in moisture availability in eastern Wyoming ranchlands
with management recommendations for adaptation. Master's project, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/562.Collections
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