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Unrealistically Optimistic Consumers: a Selective Hypothesis Testing Account for Optimism in Predictions of Future Behavior
Date
2008-04-21
Author
Advisors
Carlson, Kurt
Bettman, Jim
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Abstract
Individuals tend to make unrealistically optimistic self assessments about themselves
and their future behavior. While little studied in marketing, unrealistic optimism
by consumers may have negative consequences for both marketers and consumers. This
dissertation proposes and explores a selective hypothesis testing view of unrealistic
optimism. Specifically, I propose that consumers adopt the tentative hypothesis that
they will behave in an ideal fashion when predicting their future behavior. They then
selectively test this hypothesis by accessing information consistent with it, with
the ultimate consequence being unrealistically optimistic predictions of future behavior.
To validate this theory I use the following experimental paradigm. I have individuals
first provide an idealized estimate for the behavior of interest (e.g., In an ideal
world, how often would you exercise next week?) and then provide a second estimate
(e.g., How often will you exercise next week?). The idea here is that by making the
idealized nature of the ideal behavior salient consumers will be less likely to test
a hypothesis of ideal behavior when subsequently providing an estimate. In a series
of ten studies, I find that prior consideration of idealistic performance does indeed
temper optimism in subsequent self-assessments (henceforth post-ideal estimates).
Specifically, post-ideal estimates are free of relative optimism versus expectations
of others behaviors, are more reflective of actual past behavior, and better predict
actual future behavior. Furthermore, this attenuation of optimism is mediated by increased
consideration of realistic thoughts and is moderated by both expertise and decisiveness.
All of these results are consistent with selective hypothesis testing being a key
driver of unrealistic optimism. Additionally I demonstrate that the debiasing effect
of my method extends from behaviors to above average (and in some cases below average)
views of traits and abilities. As such my work raises the possibility that selective
hypothesis testing underlies a wide variety of self assessment biases.
Having found strong support for my selective hypothesis testing view of unrealistic
optimism, I also explore the potential consequences that unrealistic optimism may
have for consumer decisions. In particular, I demonstrate that unrealistically optimistic
predictions of future behavior appear to be associated with greater willingness to
pay for socially desirable products (e.g., treadmills) and that attenuation of such
optimism can reduce willingness to pay. Some researchers have argued that unrealistic
optimism with respect to future behavior causes people to make vice choices in the
present because they expect to make virtuous choices in the future (Kahn and Dhar
2007). If so, then the current research suggests one way to help consumers from falling
into the trap of justifying vice behaviors with optimistically held views about future
actions.
Type
DissertationDepartment
Business AdministrationSubject
Business Administration, ManagementPsychology, Social
Agriculture, Animal Culture and Nutrition
Permalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/590Citation
Tanner, Robin James (2008). Unrealistically Optimistic Consumers: a Selective Hypothesis Testing Account for Optimism
in Predictions of Future Behavior. Dissertation, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/590.Collections
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