Forecasting the Future of Cardiovascular Disease in the United States
Abstract
Background—Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United
States and is responsible for 17% of national health expenditures. As the population
ages, these costs are expected to increase substantially. Methods and Results—To prepare
for future cardiovascular care needs, the American Heart Association developed methodology
to project future costs of care for hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure,
stroke, and all other CVD from 2010 to 2030. This methodology avoided double counting
of costs for patients with multiple cardiovascular conditions. By 2030, 40.5% of the
US population is projected to have some form of CVD. Between 2010 and 2030, real (2008$)
total direct medical costs of CVD are projected to triple, from $273 billion to $818
billion. Real indirect costs (due to lost productivity) for all CVD are estimated
to increase from $172 billion in 2010 to $276 billion in 2030, an increase of 61%.
Conclusions—These findings indicate CVD prevalence and costs are projected to increase
substantially. Effective prevention strategies are needed if we are to limit the growing
burden of CVD.
Type
Journal articlePermalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/5962Published Version (Please cite this version)
10.1161/CIR.0b013e31820a55f5Citation
Heidenreich, P. A., J. G. Trogdon, et al. (2011). "Forecasting the Future of Cardiovascular
Disease in the United States." Circulation 123(8): 933-944.
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Eric Andrew Finkelstein
Research Professor of Global Health

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