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Forecasting the Future of Cardiovascular Disease in the United States

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Date
2011-03
Authors
Heidenreich, Paul A
Trogdon, Justin G
Khavjou, Olga A
Butler, Javed
Dracup, Kathleen
Ezekowitz, Michael D
Finkelstein, Eric Andrew
Hong, Yuling
Johnston, S Claiborne
Khera, Amit
Lloyd-Jones, Donald M
Nelson, Sue A
Nichol, Graham
Orenstein, Diane
Wilson, Peter WF
Woo, Y Joseph
American Heart Association Advocacy Coordinating Committee
Stroke Council
Council on Cardiovascular Radiology and Intervention
Council on Clinical Cardiology
Council on Epidemiology and Prevention
Council on Arteriosclerosis
Thrombosis and Vascular Biology
Council on Cardiopulmonary
Critical Care
Perioperative and Resuscitation
Council on Cardiovascular Nursing
Council on the Kidney in Cardiovascular Disease
Council on Cardiovascular Surgery and Anesthesia, and Interdisciplinary Council on Quality of Care and Outcomes Research
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Abstract
Background—Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States and is responsible for 17% of national health expenditures. As the population ages, these costs are expected to increase substantially. Methods and Results—To prepare for future cardiovascular care needs, the American Heart Association developed methodology to project future costs of care for hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and all other CVD from 2010 to 2030. This methodology avoided double counting of costs for patients with multiple cardiovascular conditions. By 2030, 40.5% of the US population is projected to have some form of CVD. Between 2010 and 2030, real (2008$) total direct medical costs of CVD are projected to triple, from $273 billion to $818 billion. Real indirect costs (due to lost productivity) for all CVD are estimated to increase from $172 billion in 2010 to $276 billion in 2030, an increase of 61%. Conclusions—These findings indicate CVD prevalence and costs are projected to increase substantially. Effective prevention strategies are needed if we are to limit the growing burden of CVD.
Type
Journal article
Subject
AHA Scientific Statements
cardiovascular diseases
forecasting
US costs
cost analysis
Permalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/5962
Published Version (Please cite this version)
10.1161/CIR.0b013e31820a55f5
Citation
Heidenreich, P. A., J. G. Trogdon, et al. (2011). "Forecasting the Future of Cardiovascular Disease in the United States." Circulation 123(8): 933-944.
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Scholars@Duke

Eric Andrew Finkelstein

Research Professor of Global Health
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