Skip to main content
Duke University Libraries
DukeSpace Scholarship by Duke Authors
  • Login
  • Ask
  • Menu
  • Login
  • Ask a Librarian
  • Search & Find
  • Using the Library
  • Research Support
  • Course Support
  • Libraries
  • About
View Item 
  •   DukeSpace
  • Theses and Dissertations
  • Nicholas School of the Environment
  • View Item
  •   DukeSpace
  • Theses and Dissertations
  • Nicholas School of the Environment
  • View Item
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

Electric Generation Investment in a Time of Natural Gas Price and Carbon Pricing Uncertainty: A Modeling Analysis

Thumbnail
View / Download
2.4 Mb
Date
2013-04-16
Author
Fitzpatrick, Kristopher
Advisor
Johnson, Timothy Lawrence
Repository Usage Stats
671
views
1,054
downloads
Abstract
Low current and forecasted natural gas prices are spurring investment in new gas-fired electric generation in the eastern United States. In both regulated territories and organized electricity markets, natural gas power is beginning to displace significant amounts of retiring coal generation. However, the market price of natural gas has historically been volatile and unpredictable. If gas prices rise substantially from current forecasts in the next two decades, will customers face sharply higher electricity prices? What if a carbon tax accompanies this outcome? This modeling analysis sheds light on these questions by modeling long-term capacity expansion based on current assumptions, and then assessing how economic dispatch in three regions - the Southeast, PJM Interconnection, and ISO New England – will respond to alternate versions of future gas prices and carbon taxes. The results indicate that heavily gas-dependent regions like ISO New England would absorb the imposition of a carbon tax without major electricity price increases, but that it would face substantial price increases with sustained, elevated natural gas prices. The results also suggest that portfolios in the Southeast and PJM will skew more heavily to natural gas generation in the future if investment decisions are made under current conditions and assumptions. If this occurs, these two regions could face sharp electricity price increases with either higher-than-expected natural gas prices or the imposition of a carbon tax.
Type
Master's project
Department
Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences
Subject
electricity market
electricity price
carbon tax
energy
energy policy
natural gas
Permalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/6597
Citation
Fitzpatrick, Kristopher (2013). Electric Generation Investment in a Time of Natural Gas Price and Carbon Pricing Uncertainty: A Modeling Analysis. Master's project, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/6597.
Collections
  • Nicholas School of the Environment
More Info
Show full item record
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.

Rights for Collection: Nicholas School of the Environment


Works are deposited here by their authors, and represent their research and opinions, not that of Duke University. Some materials and descriptions may include offensive content. More info

Make Your Work Available Here

How to Deposit

Browse

All of DukeSpaceCommunities & CollectionsAuthorsTitlesTypesBy Issue DateDepartmentsAffiliations of Duke Author(s)SubjectsBy Submit DateThis CollectionAuthorsTitlesTypesBy Issue DateDepartmentsAffiliations of Duke Author(s)SubjectsBy Submit Date

My Account

LoginRegister

Statistics

View Usage Statistics
Duke University Libraries

Contact Us

411 Chapel Drive
Durham, NC 27708
(919) 660-5870
Perkins Library Service Desk

Digital Repositories at Duke

  • Report a problem with the repositories
  • About digital repositories at Duke
  • Accessibility Policy
  • Deaccession and DMCA Takedown Policy

TwitterFacebookYouTubeFlickrInstagramBlogs

Sign Up for Our Newsletter
  • Re-use & Attribution / Privacy
  • Harmful Language Statement
  • Support the Libraries
Duke University