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Mechanistic Habitat Modeling with Multi-Model Climate Ensembles

dc.contributor.advisor Johnston, David Jones, Hunter 2013-04-25T20:50:23Z 2013-04-25T20:50:23Z 2013-04-25
dc.description.abstract Projections of future Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) were prepared using a 13-member ensemble of climate model output from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Three climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5), corresponding to low, moderate, and high climate change possibilities, were used to generate these projections for known Harp Seal whelping locations. The projections were splined and statistically downscaled via the CCAFS Delta method using satellite-derived observations from the National Sea Ice Data Center (NSIDC) to prepare a spatial representation of sea ice decline through the year 2100. Multi-Model Ensemble projections of the mean sea ice concentration anomaly for Harp Seal whelping locations under the moderate and high climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) show a decline of 10% to 40% by 2100 from a modern baseline climatology (average of SIC, 1988 - 2005) while sea ice concentrations under the low climate change scenario remain fairly stable. Projected year-over-year sea ice concentration variability decreases with time through 2100, but uncertainty in the prediction (model spread) increases. The general decline in sea ice projected by climate models is detrimental to Harp Seal survival, but the effect of the decreased year-over-year variability is less certain.
dc.language.iso en_US
dc.subject Global Climate Change
dc.subject Climate Modeling
dc.subject Multi-Model Ensemble
dc.subject Mechanistic Habitat Modeling
dc.subject Marine Mammals
dc.subject Pinnipeds
dc.title Mechanistic Habitat Modeling with Multi-Model Climate Ensembles
dc.type Master's project
dc.department Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences

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