Modeling Basketball Games as Alternating Renewal-Reward Processes and Predicting Match Outcomes
Abstract
We fit an Alternating Renewal-Reward Process model to basketball games and use the
models to predict the outcomes of 1209 games in the 2012-2013 National Basketball
Association (NBA) season. Using data collected from NBC play-by-play pages we fit
various models for each team's renewal process (time of possession) and reward process
(points per possession). Using these estimated distributions we simulate the outcome
of each of the 1209 games. We introduce four seperate models to predict these games.
To evaulate our models we compared their predictions with that of other commonly used
methods such as team record, Pythagorean Win Percentage, and Bookmaker odds. The
research suggests that an Alternating Renewal-Reward Process is an appropriate fit
to a basketball game.
Type
Honors thesisDepartment
MathematicsPermalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/6965Citation
Conrad De Peuter (2013). Modeling Basketball Games as Alternating Renewal-Reward Processes and Predicting Match
Outcomes. Honors thesis, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/6965.Collections
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