Show simple item record

Modeling Basketball Games as Alternating Renewal-Reward Processes and Predicting Match Outcomes

dc.contributor.author Conrad De Peuter
dc.date.accessioned 2013-04-30T12:19:28Z
dc.date.available 2013-04-30T12:19:28Z
dc.date.issued 2013-04-30
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/10161/6965
dc.description.abstract We fit an Alternating Renewal-Reward Process model to basketball games and use the models to predict the outcomes of 1209 games in the 2012-2013 National Basketball Association (NBA) season. Using data collected from NBC play-by-play pages we fit various models for each team's renewal process (time of possession) and reward process (points per possession). Using these estimated distributions we simulate the outcome of each of the 1209 games. We introduce four seperate models to predict these games. To evaulate our models we compared their predictions with that of other commonly used methods such as team record, Pythagorean Win Percentage, and Bookmaker odds. The research suggests that an Alternating Renewal-Reward Process is an appropriate fit to a basketball game.
dc.language.iso en_US
dc.subject math
dc.subject model
dc.subject basketball
dc.subject markov
dc.title Modeling Basketball Games as Alternating Renewal-Reward Processes and Predicting Match Outcomes
dc.type Honors thesis
dc.department Mathematics


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record