| dc.description.abstract |
This paper looks at 187 countries from 1960-2004 and explores the economic indicators
of the onset and the severity of civil conflicts, where civil conflicts are described
as small clashes that result in 25 or more battle deaths per conflict. For conflict
onset, I test a model that uses the Motivation Theory to predict when a conflict will
begin while for conflict severity, I test a model that uses the Feasibility Theory
to predict how severe a conflict will become. In the final section, I reverse the
models and test the ability of the Motivation Theory to predict conflict severity
and the ability of the Feasibility Theory to predict conflict onset. I find that the
Motivation Theory performs better at predicting both conflict onset and severity.
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