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Evaluating the Motivation and Feasibility Theory in Predicting the Onset and Severity of Civil Conflict

dc.contributor.author Chordia, Ishita
dc.date.accessioned 2013-04-30T12:23:26Z
dc.date.available 2013-04-30T12:23:26Z
dc.date.issued 2013-04-30
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10161/6967
dc.description.abstract This paper looks at 187 countries from 1960-2004 and explores the economic indicators of the onset and the severity of civil conflicts, where civil conflicts are described as small clashes that result in 25 or more battle deaths per conflict. For conflict onset, I test a model that uses the Motivation Theory to predict when a conflict will begin while for conflict severity, I test a model that uses the Feasibility Theory to predict how severe a conflict will become. In the final section, I reverse the models and test the ability of the Motivation Theory to predict conflict severity and the ability of the Feasibility Theory to predict conflict onset. I find that the Motivation Theory performs better at predicting both conflict onset and severity.
dc.language.iso en_US
dc.subject Conflict
dc.subject International Security
dc.subject Peace
dc.subject Motivation
dc.subject Feasibility
dc.title Evaluating the Motivation and Feasibility Theory in Predicting the Onset and Severity of Civil Conflict
dc.type Honors thesis
dc.department Economics


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