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Agriculture in a Changing Landscape: Modeling shifts in the geospatial distribution of crops in response to climate change
Abstract
Altered patterns of temperature and precipitation associated with global climate change
are expected to affect the productivity of agricultural regions around the world,
with varying regional impacts. Since ideal environmental conditions vary depending
on the physiological needs of specific plant types, the regions where we grow different
crop varieties are likely to shift in response. This shift will have profound implications
for rural landscapes and communities, as well as global food supply and international
markets.
In this research I use Classification and Regression Tree (CART) modeling to investigate
whether changes in climate over the past 50 years have contributed to shifts in the
distribution of crops in Minnesota. I incorporate climate, soil, and agricultural
management data to create a time series of regression tree models which predict the
acreage of three different important commodity crops, corn, soy, and wheat, for each
county.
The resulting models indicate that farmers’ decisions to grow corn are positively
associated with warmer winter temperatures, and that the temperature threshold has
increased over time. Soil quality is the primary predictor of soybean acreage, with
a stable threshold over time. Wheat models produced inconsistent results, possibly
due to displacement by conversion of wheat acreage to corn acreage. This suggests
that farmers are already employing crop-switching strategies in response to recent
changes in climate. As the impacts of climate change increase in severity, additional
research and investment will be needed to help agricultural producers continue to
adapt.
Type
Master's projectPermalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/8438Citation
Morse, Nora (2014). Agriculture in a Changing Landscape: Modeling shifts in the geospatial distribution
of crops in response to climate change. Master's project, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/8438.Collections
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