New England's Installed Electric Generation Forecast 2013-2025

Abstract

The aim of this Master’s Project, as identified by our client the C Three Group, LLC, was to forecast installed electric capacity in the ISO New England region through the year 2025 under different scenarios including varying natural gas prices and RPS programs. ISO New England is the Independent System Operator of New England and oversees electric generation and transmission in the New England States.

Our team built a basic supply model and, using linear optimization, we estimated ways for the ISO New England region to expand its supply to meet the growth in forecast demand. We ran our model under different scenarios, including varying natural gas prices and RPS programs. We took into account announced changes to capacity as well as possible scenarios that may affect further changes in the makeup of capacity.

The final results showed continued expansion of natural gas and wind generation, the low-cost leaders, as well as new development of demand response. As we varied the future prices of natural gas, more electricity began to be imported from Canada. We believe that future carbon prices and stricter RPS standards may further ratchet up imports and renewables, in place of natural gas. Finally, our model predicts possible future coal retirements and is doubtful of new nuclear. Our client will potentially use the explanation of our models and written report of our findings in future research and consulting for their business.