Conserving California’s Klamath-Cascade Using Spatial Climate Projections
Abstract
Global climate change complicates long-term conservation of forests. To be effective
into the future, conservation efforts need to consider potential global change impacts
and the ability of plants and animals to adapt. In northern California’s Klamath-Cascade
region projected changes are heterogeneous across the complex landscape. Understanding
future conditions can guide climate adaptation actions.
The objective of this project is to support climate-smart conservation in the Klamath-Cascade
through a spatially explicit analysis. The analysis searches for areas which have
the highest likelihood of successful forest conservation in the uncertain future.
In particular, the project looks at climate variability, tree species composition,
and northern spotted owl habitat. It uses existing climate data and species envelope
models to understand the long-term durability of the Klamath-Cascade. Within the region,
it is likely that areas with smaller magnitudes of change will have future climatic
conditions more favorable to species persistence. These areas are desirable for long-term
conservation and protection of the plants and animals in the Klamath-Cascade.
To identify areas desirable for species persistence, I used likelihood data from ten
tree species climate envelope models to assess the similarity of current and future
tree species composition. I also assessed the similarity of current precipitation
and temperature variables to projected conditions. I found that many areas of the
Klamath-Cascade will experience novel climate conditions by 2060. Some areas will
experience considerably more warming and loss of precipitation than others. However,
there are also significant portions of the region that have an overlap of current
and future species climate envelopes, indicating similar current and future vegetation
communities. I found that less than half of the areas identified for mature forest
and northern spotted owl protection will remain in climatic conditions that are suitable.
These findings can be helpful in identifying projects that are likely to sustain and
conserve species of concern in the Klamath-Cascade.
Type
Master's projectPermalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/9290Citation
Fety, Lauren (2014). Conserving California’s Klamath-Cascade Using Spatial Climate Projections. Master's project, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/9290.Collections
More Info
Show full item record
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
Rights for Collection: Nicholas School of the Environment
Works are deposited here by their authors, and represent their research and opinions, not that of Duke University. Some materials and descriptions may include offensive content. More info