Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change.
Abstract
Geospatial modeling is one of the most powerful tools available to conservation biologists
for estimating current species ranges of Earth's biodiversity. Now, with the advantage
of predictive climate models, these methods can be deployed for understanding future
impacts on threatened biota. Here, we employ predictive modeling under a conservative
estimate of future climate change to examine impacts on the future abundance and geographic
distributions of Malagasy lemurs. Using distribution data from the primary literature,
we employed ensemble species distribution models and geospatial analyses to predict
future changes in species distributions. Current species distribution models (SDMs)
were created within the BIOMOD2 framework that capitalizes on ten widely used modeling
techniques. Future and current SDMs were then subtracted from each other, and areas
of contraction, expansion, and stability were calculated. Model overprediction is
a common issue associated Malagasy taxa. Accordingly, we introduce novel methods for
incorporating biological data on dispersal potential to better inform the selection
of pseudo-absence points. This study predicts that 60% of the 57 species examined
will experience a considerable range of reductions in the next seventy years entirely
due to future climate change. Of these species, range sizes are predicted to decrease
by an average of 59.6%. Nine lemur species (16%) are predicted to expand their ranges,
and 13 species (22.8%) distribution sizes were predicted to be stable through time.
Species ranges will experience severe shifts, typically contractions, and for the
majority of lemur species, geographic distributions will be considerably altered.
We identify three areas in dire need of protection, concluding that strategically
managed forest corridors must be a key component of lemur and other biodiversity conservation
strategies. This recommendation is all the more urgent given that the results presented
here do not take into account patterns of ongoing habitat destruction relating to
human activities.
Type
Journal articleSubject
ANUSPLINBIOMOD
Madagascar
Strepsirrhini
ecological niche modeling
ensemble
least-cost corridors
micro-endemism
pseudo-absence selection
species distribution modeling
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https://hdl.handle.net/10161/9491Published Version (Please cite this version)
10.1002/ece3.1418Publication Info
Brown, Jason L; & Yoder, Anne D (2015). Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change.
Ecol Evol, 5(6). pp. 1131-1142. 10.1002/ece3.1418. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/9491.This is constructed from limited available data and may be imprecise. To cite this
article, please review & use the official citation provided by the journal.
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Show full item recordScholars@Duke
Anne Daphne Yoder
Braxton Craven Distinguished Professor of Evolutionary Biology
My work integrates field inventory activities with molecular phylogenetic techniques
and geospatial analysis to investigate Madagascar, an area of the world that is biologically
complex, poorly understood, and urgently threatened. Madagascar has been designated
as one of the most critical geographic priorities for conservation action, retaining
less than 10% of the natural habitats that existed before human colonization. It is
critical that information be obtained as quickly as possible to docum

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