A dimensionless number for understanding the evolutionary dynamics of antigenically variable RNA viruses.
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Antigenically variable RNA viruses are significant contributors to the burden of infectious disease worldwide. One reason for their ubiquity is their ability to escape herd immunity through rapid antigenic evolution and thereby to reinfect previously infected hosts. However, the ways in which these viruses evolve antigenically are highly diverse. Some have only limited diversity in the long-run, with every emergence of a new antigenic variant coupled with a replacement of the older variant. Other viruses rapidly accumulate antigenic diversity over time. Others still exhibit dynamics that can be considered evolutionary intermediates between these two extremes. Here, we present a theoretical framework that aims to understand these differences in evolutionary patterns by considering a virus's epidemiological dynamics in a given host population. Our framework, based on a dimensionless number, probabilistically anticipates patterns of viral antigenic diversification and thereby quantifies a virus's evolutionary potential. It is therefore similar in spirit to the basic reproduction number, the well-known dimensionless number which quantifies a pathogen's reproductive potential. We further outline how our theoretical framework can be applied to empirical viral systems, using influenza A/H3N2 as a case study. We end with predictions of our framework and work that remains to be done to further integrate viral evolutionary dynamics with disease ecology.
Published Version (Please cite this version)10.1098/rspb.2011.0435
Publication InfoKoelle, K; Mattingly, Jonathan Christopher; Pasour, Virginia B; Rasmussen, DA; & Ratmann, O (2011). A dimensionless number for understanding the evolutionary dynamics of antigenically variable RNA viruses. Proc Biol Sci, 278(1725). pp. 3723-3730. 10.1098/rspb.2011.0435. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10161/9525.
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Associate Professor in the Department of Biology
My research focuses on the ecology and evolution of infectious diseases. I use a combination of mathematical and statistical approaches to understand the processes driving the disease dynamics of pathogens. My interests include developing models to improve our understanding of how immune escape and other viral phenotypes impact the ecological dynamics of RNA viruses, and, in turn, how these ecological dynamics create selection pressures on viral pathogens. Additional interests include developing
This author no longer has a Scholars@Duke profile, so the information shown here reflects their Duke status at the time this item was deposited.
James B. Duke Professor
Jonathan Christopher Mattingly grew up in Charlotte, NC where he attended Irwin Ave elementary and Charlotte Country Day. He graduated from the NC School of Science and Mathematics and received a BS is Applied Mathematics with a concentration in physics from Yale University. After two years abroad with a year spent at ENS Lyon studying nonlinear and statistical physics on a Rotary Fellowship, he returned to the US to attend Princeton University where he obtained a PhD in Applied and
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