Using Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis to Examine the Costs and Benefits of Solar to Duke Energy Carolinas
Date
2015-04-24
Author
Advisor
Johnson, Dr. Timothy L.
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Abstract
The issue of compensation for solar energy is a hotly debated national issue, with
numerous solar cost/benefit studies commissioned in recent years. This project builds
on existing studies by identifying a feasible range of values for the various benefits
and costs that can be attributed to solar power. This range of values is then applied
to 15-year (2015-2029) solar power projections from Duke Energy Carolina’s (DEC) 2014
Integrated Resource Plan to provide a net present value (NPV) of solar power to DEC.
Since the benefits and costs of solar are controversial, three different scenarios
are created, each incorporating different benefit and cost values from the identified
feasible range. The results of the three scenarios ranged from a NPV of $ -188M to
a NPV $163M. The NPV figures are highly dependent on the values attributed to the
various costs and benefits of solar, which the North Carolina Utilities Commission
(NCUC) sets biennially in avoided cost proceedings. The variability between the NPVs
of solar to DEC in the three different scenarios highlights the necessity for the
NCUC to closely evaluate and examine the various costs and benefits of solar in future
avoided cost proceedings.
Type
Master's projectPermalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/9673Citation
Singh, Amit (2015). Using Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis to Examine the Costs and Benefits of Solar
to Duke Energy Carolinas. Master's project, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/9673.Collections
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